Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
UFP Industries (UFPI)
NASDAQIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.97-3.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.47 → 4.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UFPI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $300 million share repurchase program and increase dividends | The company returns cash to shareholders with a $300 million buyback and rising dividends. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or dividend per share falls below $0.36 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UFPI is a cyclical industrial business with a value-oriented profile, rather than a steady growth story. Its long-term thesis is still marked intact, but recent momentum has weakened and management execution is mixed.
The valuation evidence describes UFPI as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and expectations largely aligned with the business outlook. The priced-in assessment says execution weakness is recognized, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation and high turbulence.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses, a recent miss, and adjusted EBITDA margin falling to 6.9 percent from 9.0 percent a year earlier point to pressure on results. Management continues cost-saving work and expects to meet or exceed its savings objective, but the changing capital-project ranges and declining margin leave delivery uncertain over the multi-year view.
A guidance cut on the next call would deepen concerns about execution, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwether BCC could support the sector backdrop. If BCC begins missing or guiding lower, that potential support could fade; UFPI’s own margin recovery, organic growth, and follow-through on cost and capital plans also matter.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on UFPI turning ongoing cost actions into stronger profitability while stabilizing execution. The business setup remains intact, but recent misses and weaker momentum make that case less secure. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in UFP Industries's published investment case. The stated target is Continue to grow through acquisitions, especially in pallet manufacturing. |
| Improving |
| Acquisitions fail to close or integrate, limiting growth |
Acquisition closed ($27M) vs target of continued M&A growth UFP acquired Apache Products for $27M and signaled $50M Deckorators growth in 2027, supporting the acquisition-driven growth thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable profit margins near current levels | Profit margins remain stable with moderate capital spending. | Improving | Profit margins decline significantly below recent quarterly levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain at least 6% annual revenue growth | A primary condition in UFP Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 11.11% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202611.105796 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.52 → $4.65 · observed estimates
$6.59B → $6.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.52 | $6,591,251,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.52 | $6,591,251,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.52 | $6,591,251,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.52 | $6,591,251,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.52 | $6,591,251,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.49 | $6,588,011,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.49 | $6,588,011,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.57 | $6,604,211,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.57 | $6,604,211,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.52 | $6,652,775,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.47 | $6,625,175,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.47 | $6,604,546,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.45 | $6,594,879,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.45 | $6,594,879,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.41 | $6,571,396,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.35 | $6,556,229,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.35 | $6,556,229,617 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.30 | $6,560,526,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.30 | $6,560,526,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.90 | $6,683,752,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.90 | $6,683,752,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.90 | $6,683,752,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.65 | $6,728,485,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.65 | $6,728,485,500 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.