UFP Industries (UFPI)
NASDAQIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.38+1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UFPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UFPI — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-22
Other Information. On July 22, 2026, the Board of Directors of UFP Industries, Inc., a Michigan corporation (the “Company”), declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share of the Company’s common stock. This dividend is payable on September 15, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 1, 2026. The per share cash dividend amount represents a 3% increase from the 2025 dividend rate.
Why it matters: A confirmed increase in the dividend payout shows strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company increases the dividend payout beyond the current $0.36 per share.
Worry ifThe company announces no increase in the dividend payout for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing this program would show good cost management and better profit margins.
Supportive ifManagement says the $25 million cost program will be done by year-end.
Worry ifManagement warns of delays or failure in finishing the $25 million cost program.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal would show UFP's success in new products and growth.
Supportive ifNew product sales reach or exceed 10% of total net sales in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew product sales remain below 10% of total net sales.
Why it matters: Higher input costs could hurt profits and overall financial health.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 7% in Q2 2026 due to rising input costs.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays the same or gets better above 7% even with rising costs.
Why it matters: If dividends keep increasing, it shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company will raise its quarterly dividend above $0.36 after June 15, 2026.
Worry ifThe company maintains or cuts the dividend from $0.36 after June 15, 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company controls costs well. This shows they are efficient.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 9% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 8% in Q3.
Why it matters: If organic unit sales stabilize, it shows demand is recovering. This is important for the housing market.
Supportive ifQ3 organic unit sales growth stabilizes at or above 1% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 organic unit sales decline worse than -1% year over year.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse market conditions. This would hurt future growth.
Worry ifQ2 net sales decline more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet sales decline less than 10% year over year or stabilize.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks can show management's confidence and help stock price.
Supportive ifUFP buys back at least $50 million in shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks happen even with the approval.
Why it matters: Finishing the project shows good use of money. It also shows trust in future cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company will finish the $300 million share buyback by April 2027.
Worry ifThe company suspends or delays the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would show UFP's focus on growth and expanding its market.
Supportive ifUFP announces at least one more acquisition by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions are announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can enhance growth and expand market presence.
Supportive ifManagement says there will be at least one new acquisition in Q3.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions are announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Sales growth above 5% shows strong demand and good management in tough markets.
Supportive ifNet sales growth above 5% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet sales growth below 2% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful integration can help UFP's market position. It can also make operations run better.
Watch forUFP reports good results or improvements from merging with John Rock, Inc.
Also watch forUFP has problems or delays in merging with John Rock, Inc. This affects operations negatively.
Why it matters: Growth in Deckorators shows strong demand for products that add value. This is key for margins.
Supportive ifDeckorators organic unit sales grow by more than 9% year over year.
Worry ifDeckorators organic unit sales decline or grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing this program can help margins and make operations more efficient. This is important with rising costs.
Supportive ifManagement confirms completion of at least $25 million in cost savings from the program.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or failures in reaching the planned cost savings.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management is confident. They want to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they have finished a big part of the $300 million share buyback program.
Worry ifManagement stops or cuts the share buyback program because of market conditions.
Why it matters: Freight costs affect margins. Big changes can show operational problems or improvements.
Worry ifFreight costs as a percent of net sales decrease from the current 1.6% increase year over year.
Less concerning ifFreight costs as a percent of net sales increase beyond the current 1.6% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $298 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,129 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.