UFP Industries (UFPI)
NASDAQIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$86.31+6.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UFPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UFPI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 28, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter-ended September 26, 2026. A copy of the Registrant’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report.
Why it matters: Executive Chairman Matthew Missad is set to retire on December 31, 2026. A clear handoff would help track leadership continuity.
Watch forA company filing names the next chair. It confirms Missad retires on December 31, 2026.
Also watch forA company filing delays the retirement, or does not name a new chair after December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 margin fell to 6.9% from 9.0% a year ago. A rise would show that cost cuts and better product mix are easing cost pressure.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin is above 6.9%. The company cites lower freight or material costs.
Worry ifQ4 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin is 6.9% or lower, or freight and material costs keep margins low.
Why it matters: Deckorators Surestone sales rose 70%, but some orders await shipment as capacity grows. Shipping them would show that growth is reaching customers.
Supportive ifThe next results show Surestone backlog below $18 million and report shipments or sales growth from those orders.
Worry ifSurestone backlog stays at or above $18 million, or rises, with no reported progress in shipments.
Why it matters: UFP completed three deals and announced a fourth in 2026. Closing it and adding sales would show that the active deal plan is moving forward.
Supportive ifA company filing or release confirms the fourth deal closed, and later results report sales from it.
Worry ifThe company reports the deal was canceled, delayed, or did not close.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,559 loss on $10,000 · 35.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management tied its cost plan to a year-end goal. Meeting it would show progress despite high freight and material costs.
Supportive ifAt year-end, management reports $60 million or more in 2026 cost savings.
Worry ifManagement reports less than $60 million in savings, or says the goal was delayed.