Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Ubiquiti Inc (UI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$514.20-8.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
19.58 → 19.58 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain EPS near $3.86 in Q3 2026 | A primary condition in Ubiquiti Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.86 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.43 in 2026-Q1 or below $3.86 in 2026-Q3 | Diluted EPS: $4.70 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.86 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 21, 20264.7 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented technology business with strong recent financial performance, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: UI is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment flags expensive valuation and weak execution quality. Expectations are only modestly demanding, but the overall priced-in signal is labeled unjustified; valuation also fell substantially in the recent period.
Near term, Enterprise Technology revenue growth has supported revenue increases in two supplied quarters, though Service Provider Technology offset part of that growth. Management has stated a commitment to dividends and repurchases, but repurchase progress is not shown and EPS performance remains under watch. The next guidance update matters because a cut would add to concerns about a history of a deep miss and a recent trend of declining earnings surprises.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued Enterprise Technology growth, steadier execution, and management maintaining earnings performance. A guidance cut is a key unfavorable scenario; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among technology peers are potential tailwinds, but their effects are uncertain.
For the next 1 to 3 years, UI’s long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent results and Enterprise Technology growth, but fragile earnings quality and execution risk keep the outlook uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 GAAP gross margin of 46.2% increased by 2.8% as compared to fiscal 2025 GAAP gross margin of 43.4%.” “The increase in gross profit margin for full fiscal 2026 as compared to full fiscal 2025 was primarily driven by favorable product mix, lower other indirect costs offset in part by higher tariff costs.” Gross profit was $429.254 million in 2026-Q4.
Achieve revenue near $734 million in Q3 2026 | Revenue is expected near $734 million in Q3 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $700 million in 2026-Q3 | Revenue: $937.323M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$734 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 21, 2026937,323,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute $500 million stock repurchase program | The company has a stable management team and a $500 million buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.21 → $19.58 · observed estimates
$3.88B → $4.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | $17.21 | $3,880,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $17.21 | $3,880,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $17.21 | $3,880,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.58 | $3,880,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.58 | $3,880,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.58 | $3,880,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.58 | $3,880,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $19.58 | $4,579,883,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.