Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.47-9.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.15 → 2.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ULH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $0.105 per share | The company keeps paying a $0.105 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.105 per share | Dividend per share: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.105 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 20260.105 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making transportation business with an early turnaround element, rather than a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: operating momentum improved, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
ULH is described as cheap versus peers, but the model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain difficult to meet. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not support a stronger valuation conclusion.
In the near term, earnings execution is uncertain: ULH has missed across recent quarters, surprises have been erratic, and the next call could bring a guidance cut. Over the multi-year view, intermodal operating income improved from a loss in the first quarter to income in the third, while revenue remained below the prior year; debt also declined, though management’s balance-sheet progress is rated mixed.
The thesis depends on whether intermodal profitability can continue to improve despite revenue still trailing the prior-year period, and whether debt reduction continues. Near-term sector signals matter: continued strength from ODFL, XPO, and KNX could support the Industrials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next one to three years, ULH has signs of operational progress, but its loss-making profile, volatile execution, and sector headwind leave the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net income improves above break-even. |
| Improving |
| Net income stays negative over next 4 quarters |
Net income: $26.186M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income improves above break-even. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202626,186,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 5% in fiscal 2025 | A primary condition in Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 4% to 6%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 4% in FY25 | Operating margin: 11.9% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 4% to 6%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202611.899358 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue around $375 million in fiscal 2025 | Revenue is expected around $375 million next year. | Intact | Revenue falls below $365 million in FY25 | Revenue: $379.323M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$375 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026379,323,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.10 → $2.00 · observed estimates
$1.60B → $1.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.10 | $1,602,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.15 | $1,601,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.15 | $1,602,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.00 | $1,574,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.