Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.01+2.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ULH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ULH — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-31
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 31, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Company’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.105 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on October 1, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 1, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows faster, Universal Logistics may gain from it.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 5% again.
Worry if3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector remains below 5%.
Why it matters: More M&A could show growth and better market position for Universal Logistics.
Supportive ifThe company announces a new M&A deal or asset sale within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new M&A activity or asset sales are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Intermodal revenue fell 32.3% in Q1. A recovery means better demand and pricing.
Supportive ifIntermodal segment revenue goes over $60 million in Q2.
Worry ifIntermodal segment revenue stays below $50 million in Q2.
Why it matters: More M&A activity could show growth plans and better asset management.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new M&A deals or asset sales within 6 months after the Kearny sale.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements or asset sales within 6 months after the Kearny sale.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$270 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $722 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,173 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A smooth transition is key for financial stability. It helps keep investor confidence.
Watch forNew CFO Michael Rogers fits well in the role without causing problems.
Also watch forIssues or bad financial effects can occur during the CFO change.
Why it matters: A smaller loss would show recovery in the intermodal segment, which has struggled. This could signal better demand and pricing.
Supportive ifIntermodal segment losses drop below $(10) million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIntermodal segment losses remain at or worsen beyond $(10) million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It shows management cares about investors.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.105 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.105 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating margins mean improved cost management and profits. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifQ3 operating margin goes above 5.0%. This shows recovery from last year.
Worry ifQ3 operating margin stays below 5.0%. This shows ongoing profit problems.