Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$564.12+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ULTA
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $564 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 18× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $428 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $550–$735. Note: our $428 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($550–$735). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $625 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $647.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $480.35 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $484.21 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $194.69 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$550.00 – $735.00 (median $647.50) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-08-28
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 2% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 0.6 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $26.45/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $375.81 |
| 8.9 |
| 41.61 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $345.74 | 14.2 | 24.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $309.09 | 11.3 | 27.44 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $110.41 | 0.4 | 275.08 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $1185.16 | 43.2 | 27.44 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $153.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $504.92 | 18.4 | 27.44 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $319.19 | 11.3 | 28.34 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $358.92 | 14.2 | 25.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $372.42 | 11.3 | 33.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $133.99 | 0.4 | 333.84 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1428.01 | 43.2 | 33.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $608.38 | 18.4 | 33.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $367.98 | 14.2 | 25.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $385.70 | 11.3 | 34.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $138.77 | 0.4 | 345.75 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $1478.94 | 43.2 | 34.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $630.07 | 18.4 | 34.24 | Analyst | medium |