Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$660.70+4.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
32.17 → 32.19 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ULTA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures between $400M and $450M | Profit margins are stable near 12%, and capital spending is focused between $400M and $450M. | Under Pressure | Capex exceeds $450M or falls below $400M significantly | Capital expenditures: $81.258M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $400M to $450M capex. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 202681,258,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ULTA is a consumer discretionary growth business with a durable premium in the evidence, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, though elevated risk and expensive valuation make execution important.
The valuation is stretched and carries a durable premium versus peers, with a positive expectations gap. The evidence does not specify exactly what growth the market assumes, so the size of that expectation is unclear.
Near term, recent results are strong: ULTA reported earnings beats in June and August, while fiscal 2026 sales growth guidance rose from 6% to 7% to 6.7% to 7.2%. Operating margin was 12.5% in the third quarter, and management’s capital spending remains aligned with its stated plan. A guidance cut is a meaningful risk, and the evidence notes a deep miss in recent history despite a low current miss-risk estimate.
Over the next year, the key company-specific test is whether ULTA sustains its sales growth and margin performance without cutting guidance. Consumer discretionary momentum is another swing factor: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from AMZN, BABA, and PDD would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over a 1 to 3 year horizon, ULTA’s strong recent performance and consistent execution support an intact long-term thesis, but the expensive valuation and guidance risk leave the outlook sensitive to delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Ulta Beauty's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or grow market share with new partnerships. |
| Improving |
| Significant loss of market share or partnership failures |
Qualitative: Resilient demand & raised guidance vs sustain/grow share Ulta beat Q2 earnings and raised guidance. Target launched a new beauty concept, increasing competitive pressure, but Ulta's demand remains resilient. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 12.3% to 12.4% | Profit margins are stable near 12%, and capital spending is focused between $400M and $450M. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 11.9% | Operating margin: 12.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin >= 12.3%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 202612.505979 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of 6% to 7% in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Ulta Beauty's published investment case. The stated target is 6% to 7% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.87% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 6% to 7% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20268.865331 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$31.94 → $32.19 · observed estimates
$13.95B → $13.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $31.94 | $13,949,382,768 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $31.93 | $13,952,548,607 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $31.93 | $13,952,548,607 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $31.93 | $13,952,548,607 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $31.93 | $13,952,547,354 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $31.94 | $13,953,819,895 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $31.94 | $13,953,020,085 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $31.95 | $13,955,067,225 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $31.95 | $13,955,067,225 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $31.97 | $13,955,899,703 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $32.13 | $13,963,811,370 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $32.13 | $13,963,811,370 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $32.13 | $13,963,811,370 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $32.11 | $13,962,194,703 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $32.11 | $13,962,178,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $32.11 | $13,962,178,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $32.11 | $13,962,178,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $32.11 | $13,962,178,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $32.11 | $13,962,178,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $32.11 | $13,962,178,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $32.11 | $13,962,178,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $32.12 | $13,963,001,874 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $32.13 | $13,959,343,455 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $32.12 | $13,954,555,311 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $32.12 | $13,954,555,311 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $32.12 | $13,954,556,407 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $32.12 | $13,954,556,407 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $32.12 | $13,954,572,551 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $32.12 | $13,954,572,551 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-21 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-22 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $32.15 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $32.16 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $32.16 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $32.16 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $32.16 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $32.17 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $32.17 | $13,958,732,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $32.17 | $13,959,372,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $32.18 | $13,961,900,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $32.19 | $13,961,580,551 | 16 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.