Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$564.12+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ULTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ULTA — CTO transition
Dated 2026-07-14
Chief Technology Officer (CTO) — Kelly E. Garcia: Kelly E. Garcia transitioned from a board member to CTO.
Why it matters: Using the $1.0 billion left in the share repurchase program shows confidence in finances.
Supportive ifThe company completes the $1.0 billion share repurchase program by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to utilize the remaining $1.0 billion by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the share repurchase program could signal management's confidence in cash flow and stock value.
Watch forAnnouncement of an increase in the share repurchase program.
Also watch forThere may be a cut or stop to the share buyback program.
Why it matters: This signals Ulta's commitment to growth and store expansion, which is key for future sales.
Worry ifCapital spending was under $400 million for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is $400 million or more for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how revenue and margins are doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong revenue and margin performance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weak revenue and margin performance.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth is slowing. This impacts investor views.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth declining year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth increasing year over year.
Why it matters: This growth range is a key goal for Ulta. Meeting it shows strong demand.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported between 6% and 7%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 6%.
Why it matters: Higher capex may show plans for aggressive growth or more investment needs.
Watch forSpending was over $450 million in fiscal 2026.
Also watch forSpending was under $400 million in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show weaker profits and affect future plans.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS reported below $7.74.
Less concerning ifQ2 diluted EPS reported above $8.00.
Why it matters: This is a key measure of sales health. A drop below guidance signals weakness.
Worry ifComparable sales growth is below 3.2%.
Less concerning ifComparable sales growth is above 3.7%.
Why it matters: Operating margin is important for making money. A drop raises concerns.
Worry ifOperating margin is less than 12.3%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is more than 12.5%.
Why it matters: Slower buybacks may show less confidence in cash flow or plans.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $200 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifShare buybacks are strong, over $300 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for maintaining investor confidence. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifNet sales growth reported below 6.7%.
Less concerning ifNet sales growth reported above 7.2%.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $289 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,623 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.