Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$660.70+4.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ULTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
ULTA — CTO transition
Dated 2026-07-14
Chief Technology Officer (CTO) — Kelly E. Garcia: Kelly E. Garcia transitioned from a board member to CTO.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin edged down to 39.1%, in part due to Space NK's business mix. A further drop would point to more pressure.
Worry ifOn December 3, Q3 gross margin is below 39.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is above 39.1%, despite the Space NK business mix.
Why it matters: Ulta raised its full-year sales growth range to 6.7% to 7.2%. Results above the top end would show further growth strength.
Supportive ifOn December 3, Ulta raises its full-year net sales growth outlook above 7.2%.
Worry ifUlta cuts its full-year net sales growth range below 6.7%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $289 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,623 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.