ULTA
Ulta BeautyNASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ULTA has a composite score of 13.8 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a high confidence level of 80.5 and is driven by macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The assessment is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $6.23 → $6.30 (+1.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 35%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — -0.13 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 42/100, drawdown 44/100, beta 0/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ULTA Ulta Beauty | +14 | full | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-12)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-12)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-121mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Ulta Beauty, Inc. issued a press release regarding its consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 18 - 2025-12-184mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 15, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (the “Company” or “Ulta Beauty”) adopted an Executive Severance Plan (the “Severance Plan”), which provides for the payment of severance and other benefits to its executive officers (as defined in Rule 3b-7 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) in the event of an involuntary termination of emplo…
executive changeneutralscore 2 - 2025-12-045mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 4, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc. issued a press release regarding its consolidated financial results for the third quarter ended November 1, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 2 - 2025-07-259mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously announced, Paula Oyibo, the former Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, principal financial officer, and principal accounting officer of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (the “Company” or “Ulta Beauty”), left the Company, effective June 24, 2025 (the “Separation Date”). In connection with her departure, Ulta Beauty and Ms. Oyibo entered into a Separa…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.