Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put ULTA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating margin near 12.3% to 12.4%: 12.5% vs 12.3% target.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 32% growth a year, above the roughly 11% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 36% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskUlta Beauty's growth relies on strong demand in beauty products. The company recently raised its full-year sales forecast to 6.7-7.2% growth. It reported an 8.9% increase in net sales last quarter. Ulta trades at 21× P/E, above the 11× peer median. The market expects more growth than the company forecasts, which looks full. The primary risk is a potential guidance cut on the next call. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. ULTA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 27 analysts currently covering ULTA (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ULTA in the last 4 months.
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Compare ULTA with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Other Specialty Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ULTA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Earnings beat indicates strong revenue growth potential.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $564.12
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $564.12.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
CFO's praise indicates strong revenue growth potential.

Target's new concept increases competitive pressure on Ulta.

Raising guidance supports revenue growth objectives.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Strong sales growth supports revenue growth objective.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Targets higher sales growth, aligning with revenue objectives.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Earnings call details support revenue growth expectations.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Raises sales forecasts, supporting revenue growth goals.
