Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Unusual Machines Inc /US (UMAC)
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.03-10.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UMAC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve gross margin near 40% by late 2026 | Unusual Machines aims to improve its gross margin to 40% by late 2026. | Improving | gross margin falls below 33% in FY26 | Gross margin: 34.7% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=33% and up to 40% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202634.696639 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth story, not a proven durable compounder: recent financial performance is weak, earnings quality is fragile, and the business is loss-making. The multi-year view remains in watch status, with manufacturing expansion underway but operating profitability not yet demonstrated.
The valuation model has low confidence, and its score fell from 30.6 to 19.5; the evidence does not establish whether the shares are cheap or expensive versus peers. The valuation shows an 8.82-point premium to peers, linked to optionality, meaning investors may be assigning value to possible future growth, but the snapshot does not show how much successful execution is already assumed.
Near-term, revenue and gross profit rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, alongside reported investment in motor-line capacity, while operating losses remained substantial. Management expects gross margin to face near-term pressure before recovering toward 40%, and its end-2026 positive operating cash flow goal is not yet supported by the reported results. Erratic recent earnings misses and weaker performance than the industry cohort remain risks.
The multi-year thesis hinges on scaling production while improving margins and converting growth into positive operating cash flow. A guidance cut on the next call would be a negative signal, while rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from technology-sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop. The recent acquisition is noted, but the evidence gives little detail on its expected business impact.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UMAC’s setup rests on whether revenue growth and capacity investment lead to stronger margins and cash generation; that progress is not yet established. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to increase its operating breakeven revenue above $30-40 million. |
| Improving |
| annual revenue fails to exceed $30 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $52 million acquisition of Upgrade Energy | It is completing a $52 million acquisition to boost growth. | Intact | acquisition fails to close or is materially delayed past mid 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.54 → $-0.48 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.20 | $52,250,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.20 | $52,250,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.20 | $52,250,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.20 | $52,250,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.20 | $52,250,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.20 | $52,250,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.54 | $64,972,645 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.49 | $103,275,377 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.48 | $104,815,955 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.48 | $104,815,955 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.48 | $104,815,955 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.48 | $104,815,955 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.48 | $112,614,182 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.