United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.93+0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
UNFI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 18, 2026, United Natural Foods, Inc. (the “Company”), SUPERVALU INC., UNFI Wholesale, Inc., and UNFI Distribution Company, LLC (the “Co-Borrowers” and, together with the Company, the “Borrowers”), the guarantors party thereto, the certain financial institutions that are parties thereto as lenders, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent (the “Agent”), entered into Amendment No. 5 to the Term Loan Agreement…
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a good change in the maturing sector.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower net debt would make finances more stable and improve leverage.
Supportive ifNet debt decreases below $1.63 billion in Q3.
Worry ifNet debt increases above $1.63 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher growth shows better efficiency and more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 16.6% year over year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is below 16.6% year over year.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse demand trends. This would hurt profit metrics.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline worse than 4.2% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet sales decline less than 4.2% year over year or show growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $349 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,700 loss on $10,000 · 27.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase shows weak cost management and may hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating expenses exceed 12.4% of net sales in Q4.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses remain below or equal to 12.4% of net sales in Q4.
Why it matters: More free cash flow shows better cash management and health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow increases above $54 million in Q4.
Worry ifFree cash flow declines further below $54 million.
Why it matters: A higher adjusted EBITDA shows strong improvements in operations. It also shows a focus on making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $185 million in Q4.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $180 million in Q4.
Why it matters: A lower net leverage ratio means better financial health. It also means less debt risk.
Supportive ifNet leverage ratio falls below 2.5x in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio stays above 2.5x in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins would show good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin rises above 2.4% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 2.4% in Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in free cash flow would show better cash management and efficiency.
Supportive ifFree cash flow increases from $54 million in Q3 compared to prior quarters.
Worry ifFree cash flow declines further from $54 million in Q3.