United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$46.01-4.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers
UNFI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 18, 2026, United Natural Foods, Inc. (the “Company”), SUPERVALU INC., UNFI Wholesale, Inc., and UNFI Distribution Company, LLC (the “Co-Borrowers” and, together with the Company, the “Borrowers”), the guarantors party thereto, the certain financial institutions that are parties thereto as lenders, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent (the “Agent”), entered into Amendment No. 5 to the Term Loan Agreement…
Why it matters: UNFI aims to return to sales growth as it adds customer business. Sales above its range would show that new business is offsetting planned exits.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 net sales exceed $31.8 billion, the top of guidance.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 net sales fall below $31.2 billion, the bottom of guidance.
Why it matters: Cash flow helped cut net debt by $295 million in fiscal 2026. A shortfall could slow further debt reduction.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 free cash flow is below $275 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 free cash flow reaches or exceeds $275 million, the low end of guidance.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,149 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.