UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$397.14-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNH
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $397 UNH trades at 21× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median, but our blended $406 fair value is roughly in line with the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $380–$529. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $475.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $232.43 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $219.96 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $456.58 | 12.7 | 33.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$380.00 – $529.00 (median $475.00) · 27 analysts · as of 2026-07-21
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 9% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $20.88/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $556.26 |
| 21.3 |
| 26.07 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $404.51 | 18.7 | 21.58 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1886.90 | 3.8 | 496.83 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $630.67 | 33.8 | 18.64 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $150.16 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $423.09 | 22.7 | 18.64 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $458.74 | 22.9 | 20.02 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $343.94 | 21.3 | 16.12 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $541.29 | 18.7 | 28.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1897.30 | 3.8 | 499.57 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $976.98 | 33.8 | 28.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $655.42 | 22.7 | 28.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $249.62 | 21.3 | 11.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $533.19 | 18.7 | 28.44 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1868.92 | 3.8 | 492.10 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $962.37 | 33.8 | 28.44 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $645.61 | 22.7 | 28.44 | Analyst | high |