UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
NYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-07-07
$428.28+2.46%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $428.28. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $428 UNH trades at 26× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median, but our blended $365 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $373–$492. Note: our $365 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($373–$492). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $487 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$373.00 – $492.00 (median $453.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 13% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $20.82/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $453.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $140.54 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $103.77 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $204.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $479.06 | 15.3 | 35.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $430.59 | 19.9 | 21.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $434.64 | 26.6 | 16.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1630.48 | 3.3 | 494.19 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $681.76 | 41.7 | 16.34 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $137.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $399.47 | 24.4 | 16.34 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $461.50 | 26.6 | 17.35 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $247.55 | 19.9 | 12.42 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $694.93 | 26.6 | 26.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1637.85 | 3.3 | 496.42 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1090.04 | 41.7 | 26.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $638.70 | 24.4 | 26.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $171.16 | 19.9 | 8.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $685.80 | 26.6 | 25.78 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1616.34 | 3.3 | 489.90 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1075.72 | 41.7 | 25.78 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $630.31 | 24.4 | 25.78 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.