Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$409.38+1.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
22.63 → 23.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UNH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AI investments generate at least $2 return per $1 spent | A supporting condition in UnitedHealth Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=2x ROI on AI spending. | Intact | AI investments fail to generate positive returns or reduce EPS | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large healthcare business with a durable-earnings profile, and its long-term thesis is currently intact. Recent results have been strong, management is stable, and the sector backdrop is supportive, though execution risks remain.
The valuation evidence is mixed: UNH is described as cheap versus peers, while its overall value assessment is neutral. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, and the pricing model shows low fragility, so the current setup does not depend on an unusually optimistic market view.
Near term, recent earnings beats and rising 2026 earnings guidance support continued strong fundamentals. Optum revenue and earnings have grown, while the operating cost ratio has improved, though progress on cost management is rated mixed. The near-term miss risk is low, but past misses and recent peer misses remain caution points.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining earnings growth, improving cost discipline, and continuing progress in Optum. A guidance cut after recent increases would damage confidence, while weakening jobs data could add pressure; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the business backdrop.
The 1 to 3 year view remains intact, with recent execution supporting the thesis and cost control and economic conditions as the main uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised its 2026 EPS outlook to above $17.35 per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $17.35 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $4.56 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=17.35 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20264.56 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable leadership without disruption to strategy | Leadership changes have been managed without disrupting operations. | Under Pressure | Leadership issues cause strategic or operational disruption | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue growth of at least 1% | A primary condition in UnitedHealth Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=1% YoY. | Broken | annual revenue growth falls below 1% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -0.41% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-0.412686 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.44 → $23.42 · observed estimates
$459.37B → $463.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.44 | $459,373,226,520 | 27 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.44 | $459,373,226,520 | 27 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.42 | $459,240,852,138 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.44 | $459,373,226,520 | 27 / 23 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.44 | $459,373,226,520 | 27 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.44 | $459,373,226,520 | 27 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.42 | $459,240,852,138 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $22.42 | $459,240,852,138 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $22.42 | $459,240,852,138 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.44 | $459,373,226,520 | 27 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $22.44 | $459,373,226,520 | 27 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.42 | $458,627,470,977 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $22.42 | $458,616,421,447 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $22.42 | $458,616,421,447 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $22.42 | $458,616,421,447 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $22.42 | $458,616,421,447 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $22.42 | $458,616,421,447 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $22.45 | $458,616,419,994 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $22.45 | $458,616,419,994 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $22.45 | $458,616,419,994 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $22.45 | $458,616,419,994 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $22.45 | $458,616,436,635 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $22.45 | $458,616,436,635 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $22.45 | $458,616,431,535 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $22.46 | $458,533,098,202 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $22.46 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $22.52 | $458,533,098,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $22.52 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $22.52 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $22.63 | $459,218,223,203 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $22.63 | $459,207,806,536 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $22.63 | $459,207,806,536 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $22.63 | $459,207,806,536 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $22.63 | $459,207,806,536 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $22.63 | $459,207,806,536 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $22.62 | $459,207,806,536 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $22.62 | $459,207,720,804 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $22.62 | $459,207,720,804 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $22.96 | $462,259,147,057 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.08 | $462,648,605,391 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.15 | $463,042,902,157 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.15 | $463,042,902,157 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.25 | $463,225,386,071 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.25 | $463,225,386,071 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.28 | $463,248,706,071 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.39 | $463,151,068,824 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.39 | $463,151,068,824 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.41 | $463,341,777,157 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.41 | $463,593,767,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.41 | $463,593,767,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.41 | $463,593,767,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.41 | $463,593,767,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.42 | $463,107,668,468 | 18 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
6 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.