UNH
UnitedHealth GroupNYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, UNH has a composite score of 23.5 and is labeled as "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.3 and elevated risk, with macro factors such as labor and rates being significant drivers. The sector score is low at 7.6, while valuation is considered fair at 62.9. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.25
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.57 → $4.85 (+6.2% / 30d). 16 raised, 5 cut, 22 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 11 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Raise 2026 EPS outlook to >$17.35growthbehind0% progress
4/21: “Full Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Raised to Greater Than $17.35 Per Share.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. UnitedHealth Group raised its full-year 2026 earnings outlook to greater than $17.35 per share. This is a new priority for the company, and its impact on financial performance will be observed in future quarters.
- 2.Reaffirm 2025 EPS expectationsgrowthbehind0% progressprovisional
1/12: “The senior management team intends to reaffirm our adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. UnitedHealth Group has consistently reaffirmed its adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations. The financials show net income of $10.06B in 2025-Q4, indicating strong earnings performance. The trajectory is delivering on reaffirmed expectations.
- 3.2025 revenue outlook $445.5B-$448.0Bgrowthwatchprovisional
7/29: “Full Year 2025 Revenue Outlook of $445.5 Billion to $448.0 Billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q2. UnitedHealth Group set its full-year 2025 revenue outlook between $445.5 billion and $448.0 billion. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $75.705B, indicating progress towards the annual target. The trajectory is on track to meet the stated revenue outlook.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 35%; 252d 48%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −38%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.32 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 20/100, drawdown 24/100, beta 68/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Raise 2026 EPS outlook to >$17.35
GrowthUnitedHealth Group raised its full-year 2026 earnings outlook to greater than $17.35 per share.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. UnitedHealth Group raised its full-year 2026 earnings outlook to greater than $17.35 per share. This is a new priority for the company, and its impact on financial performance will be observed in future quarters.
0%CEO/CFO:“Full Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Raised to Greater Than $17.35 Per Share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-21Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Full Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Raised to Greater Than $17.35 Per Share.”
- #2
Reaffirm 2025 EPS expectations
GrowthUnitedHealth Group reaffirmed its adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. UnitedHealth Group has consistently reaffirmed its adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations. The financials show net income of $10.06B in 2025-Q4, indicating strong earnings performance. The trajectory is delivering on reaffirmed expectations.
0%CEO/CFO:“The senior management team intends to reaffirm our adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-12Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-12provisionalShow history (3)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The senior management team intends to reaffirm our adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Reaffirm our adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations previously disclosed.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company intends to reaffirm our adjusted 2025 earnings per share expectations.”
- #3
2025 revenue outlook $445.5B-$448.0B
GrowthUnitedHealth Group set its full-year 2025 revenue outlook between $445.5 billion and $448.0 billion.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q2. UnitedHealth Group set its full-year 2025 revenue outlook between $445.5 billion and $448.0 billion. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $75.705B, indicating progress towards the annual target. The trajectory is on track to meet the stated revenue outlook.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Full Year 2025 Revenue Outlook of $445.5 Billion to $448.0 Billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-07-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Full Year 2025 Revenue Outlook of $445.5 Billion to $448.0 Billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | +28 | full | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-21)-16 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The press release also includes a hyperlink to a pdf document which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.2. Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 44 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, the Board of Directors appointed Dennis Stankiewicz, age 48, to the position of Chief Accounting Officer of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (the “Company”) effective March 2, 2026. Mr. Stankiewicz will continue to serve as the Company’s Corporate Controller, a position he has held since April 17, 2023. Mr. Stankiewicz joined t…
executive changeneutralscore 17 - 2026-02-252mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 23, 2026, the Compensation and Human Resources Committee of the Board of Directors of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (the “Company”) amended the stock option granted to Stephen Hemsley on May 14, 2025 (previously disclosed in the Company’s Form 8-K filed on May 14, 2025). The amendment adds a two-year share holding requirement followin…
executive changeneutralscore 11 - 2025-11-215mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Scott Gottlieb, M.D. as independent director On November 18, 2025, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Scott Gottlieb, M.D. to serve as an independent director of the Company, effective immediately. Dr. Gottlieb has not yet been appointed to any committees of the Board of Directors. Dr. Gottli…
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-09-098mo agoItem 7.01
shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any Company filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements The statements, estimates, projections, guidance or outlook contained in this report include “forward-looking” statements which are intended to take advan…
capital allocationneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.