UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$409.38+1.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UNH — CFO transition
Dated 2026-03-02
Chief Accounting Officer — Dennis Stankiewicz: Dennis Stankiewicz was promoted to Chief Accounting Officer while continuing as Corporate Controller.
Why it matters: Optum Q3 earnings were $3.7 billion, up from $3.3 billion in Q1. A reversal would challenge the reported improvement across Optum.
Watch forQ4 Optum earnings are at least $3.7 billion, near or above the Q3 result.
Also watch forQ4 Optum earnings fall below $3.3 billion, the Q1 level.
Why it matters: UNH said it served 935,000 fewer Medicare Advantage members than at 2025 year-end. Further losses could weigh on UnitedHealthcare revenue and earnings.
Worry ifThe next report shows Medicare Advantage members down further from the 935,000 decline reported through Q3.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows Medicare Advantage membership flat or higher than the Q3 level.
Why it matters: UNH raised its 2026 adjusted EPS floor to $20.50 after Q3. Meeting that level would keep its earnings recovery on track.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is at least $20.50, with Q4 results that keep the year above that floor.
Worry ifUNH cuts its 2026 adjusted EPS floor below $20.50 or reports full-year adjusted EPS below it.
Why it matters: UNH set a year-end target to remove 30% of current prior approval volume. Public results can show whether the change is real and on time.
Watch forUNH reports that it removed at least 30% of current prior approval volume by Dec. 31, 2026.
Also watch forUNH reports less than a 30% cut by Dec. 31, 2026, or does not report progress against the target.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,673 loss on $10,000 · 26.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: UnitedHealthcare served 48.3 million people in Q3, down from 49.1 million in Q1. More losses could limit growth even if margins improve.
Worry ifThe next report shows UnitedHealthcare has fewer than 48.3 million members.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows UnitedHealthcare has more than 48.3 million members.
Why it matters: The Q3 medical care ratio was 88.4%, helped by $610 million in favorable reserve changes. A higher ratio could point to rising care costs or weaker pricing.
Worry ifQ4 medical care ratio is above 88.4%, or rises from last year. Favorable reserve changes are fading.
Less concerning ifQ4 medical care ratio is 88.4% or lower. A large favorable reserve change does not drive the result.