UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$397.14-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
UNH — CFO transition
Dated 2026-03-02
Chief Accounting Officer — Dennis Stankiewicz: Dennis Stankiewicz was promoted to Chief Accounting Officer while continuing as Corporate Controller.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact UNH's performance. It’s important to track sector health.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median over the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains stable or increases.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance shows strong financial health and growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement raises the EPS outlook to greater than $17.35 in the next earnings call.
Worry ifEPS guidance remains below $17.35 or is lowered.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue goal shows strong growth. It can help future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement reports 2025 revenue in the range of $445.5B to $448.0B.
Worry ifRevenue falls outside of the $445.5B to $448.0B range.
Why it matters: This deal helps UnitedHealth make healthcare better for consumers.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in late 2026 if there are no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe deal might have regulatory problems or be delayed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: This confirms the company's strong performance and management's commitment to growth. It shows they are on track with their earnings outlook.
Supportive ifAdjusted earnings per share reported at $19.50 or higher for full year 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share reported below $19.50 for full year 2026.
Why it matters: This deal helps UnitedHealth grow its home care and value-based care.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is done. LHC Group shareholders approved and supported it.
Worry ifThe acquisition may be delayed or not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: Membership trends affect revenue and profit. A drop may show bigger problems.
Worry ifUnitedHealthcare membership stays steady or grows from 48.5 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifUnitedHealthcare membership drops more from 48.5 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Confirmation of the adjusted EPS guidance range of $19.50 to $20.00 per share signals strong earnings growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms adjusted EPS guidance remains within the range of $19.50 to $20.00 per share.
Worry ifManagement cuts adjusted EPS guidance to below $19.50 per share.
Why it matters: A medical care ratio over 88.1% shows rising costs. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifMedical care ratio reported above 88.1% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifMedical care ratio reported below 88.1% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Optum's revenue growth is stable. This shows good management of membership losses.
Supportive ifOptum revenues stabilize or grow compared to $65.7 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOptum revenues decline further from $65.7 billion in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,895 loss on $10,000 · 28.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.