Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Unum (UNM)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$74.79-17.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.46 → 9.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UNM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce Closed Block long-term care statutory reserves by at least $7 billion cumulatively | Unum is cutting risk by reducing long-term care reserves by $7.8 billion. | Improving | cumulative LTC reserve reduction falls below $7 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UNM is an established insurance business with a multi-year thesis tied to operating income growth and reducing risk in its Closed Block long-term care business. The thesis state is watch: recent performance has been below its industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, at a 19% premium, while the measured expectations gap is small and aligned. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not point to highly stretched expectations, but the premium leaves less room for execution to disappoint.
Near-term, management’s priorities appear on track: operating income and premium income have grown, long-term care reinsurance has reduced statutory reserves, and capital returns have continued. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but UNM has missed in recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued operating growth and execution of the long-term care reinsurance strategy. Rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, UNM has tangible execution progress and a lower stated risk profile, but expensive peer-relative valuation and below-cohort recent performance warrant continued attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain on track to close the recently announced long-term care reinsurance transaction in the second half of the year, further improving the risk profile of the Closed Block.” ““Building on the actions we have taken over the last several years, including our prior external reinsurance transactions, this agreement significantly reduces the size and risk profile of the Closed Block.”
Quarterly dividend increases to at least $0.505 per share | The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.505 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.50 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income grows to at least $303 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose from $218 million to $303 million in one quarter. | Intact | operating income falls below $218 million | Operating income: $329.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $303 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 29, 2026329,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Sustained core operations top-line trends, with 3.6 percent premium growth on a constant currency basis; strong core operations margins, including 21.4 percent adjusted operating return on equity, and solid traditional U.S. life insurance company statutory operating earnings of $330.9 million.” “• Full-year results reflect solid top-line trends and strong levels of return in our core businesses; core operations premium growth of 3.7 percent on a constant currency basis and adjusted operating return on equity of 20.5 percent.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 8.6% year over year | Revenue grew 8.6% year over year in the latest quarter. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 0% | Revenue growth: -24.59% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 8.6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026-24.594483 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Sustained core operations top-line trends, with 3.6 percent premium growth on a constant currency basis; strong core operations margins, including 21.4 percent adjusted operating return on equity, and solid traditional U.S. life insurance company statutory operating earnings of $330.9 million.” “• Full-year results reflect solid top-line trends and strong levels of return in our core businesses; core operations premium growth of 3.7 percent on a constant currency basis and adjusted operating return on equity of 20.5 percent.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.63 → $9.36 · observed estimates
$12.19B → $12.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.63 | $12,188,574,752 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.63 | $12,188,574,752 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.63 | $12,188,574,752 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.63 | $12,188,574,752 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.67 | $12,428,397,300 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.64 | $12,425,146,460 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.56 | $12,178,196,424 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.58 | $12,697,979,800 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.56 | $12,360,085,313 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.58 | $12,697,979,800 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.56 | $12,360,085,313 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.58 | $12,697,979,800 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.56 | $12,685,325,720 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.56 | $12,360,085,313 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.51 | $12,687,159,060 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.50 | $12,718,090,870 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.50 | $12,718,090,870 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.53 | $12,360,601,355 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.48 | $12,361,823,577 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.48 | $12,361,823,577 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.48 | $12,361,823,577 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.48 | $12,361,823,577 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.48 | $12,361,823,577 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.45 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.46 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.46 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.46 | $12,361,079,057 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.45 | $12,363,489,624 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.43 | $12,363,489,624 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.43 | $12,363,489,624 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.43 | $12,363,489,624 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.43 | $12,363,489,624 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.43 | $12,363,489,624 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.43 | $12,363,489,624 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.43 | $12,414,828,702 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.43 | $12,414,828,702 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.43 | $12,414,828,702 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.43 | $12,413,624,497 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.43 | $12,415,324,441 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.36 | $12,415,328,859 | 8 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.