Unum (UNM)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
$95.85-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
UNM — dividend update
Dated 2026-05-21
Other Events. On May 21, 2026, Unum Group announced that its Board of Directors has authorized an increase in the quarterly dividend to be paid on its common stock. The new quarterly dividend rate of 50.5 cents per common share, or $2.02 per share on an annual basis, will be effective with the dividend expected to be paid in the third quarter of 2026. A copy of the news release concerning the dividend increase is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will show progress in Unum's strategy to reduce long-term care risks. It is a key part of their plan to improve the Closed Block segment.
Supportive ifThe deal will close once all regulatory approvals are received by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe transaction fails to close or faces significant delays beyond 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in premiums may show problems. It could mean higher costs too.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted operating income was less than $346 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted operating income was more than $346 million.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will improve the risk profile of the Closed Block segment.
Supportive ifThe long-term care reinsurance deal is done.
Worry ifThe long-term care reinsurance deal is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: A slowdown in premium growth could signal weakening demand or market challenges.
Worry ifQ3 premium growth reported below 3.0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 premium growth reported above 3.0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,155 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company's financial health. It shows operational success too.
Supportive ifOperating income growth reported above 5% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income growth falls below 3% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. It could impact Unum's performance.
Worry ifUnum's revenue growth falls below the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This report shows how premium growth and operating income are changing.
Watch forQ3 earnings show premium growth above 3.5% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report reveals premium growth below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Cutting losses in this area is key for Unum's profits and managing risks.
Supportive ifClosed Block segment losses decrease from $75.4 million in Q2 2026 to below $60 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifClosed Block segment losses increase or remain above $75 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Starting the new buyback program shows a promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company will start a $1 billion share buyback program on September 1, 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported under the new program by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows better financial health. It can support growth and dividends.
Watch forCash from operating activities increases by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Also watch forCash from operating activities goes down or grows by less than 5%.
Why it matters: This report will show how Unum is doing financially. It will also cover management goals.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth compared to previous quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income decline compared to previous quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to returns.
Supportive ifThe company pays a dividend of $0.505 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.505 per share.
Why it matters: This increase shows confidence in cash flow and financial health. It may attract more investors.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the dividend increase in a press release or earnings call.
Worry ifThe company will keep the current dividend. There will be no increase.
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend shows Unum cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifThe dividend payment of $0.505 per share is confirmed for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company will not pay the dividend. It may also pay less than planned.
Why it matters: This payment shows the company will give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or reduced.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if premium growth and operating income trends continue. Investors look for strong performance to gauge future growth.
Watch forIn Q3 2026, adjusted operating income is over $360 million. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forIn Q3 2026, adjusted operating income is under $340 million. This suggests weak trends.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Unum maintains strong operating income growth and premium trends.
Watch forQ2 net income is over $232 million. This shows the company is still growing.
Also watch forQ2 net income falls below $200 million, suggesting a slowdown.