Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.98+1.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
UPBD — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-05-19
Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — Mr. Bryan Pechersky: Mr. Pechersky resigned from his roles at the company.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a commitment to how money is spent, even with challenges.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend payout of $0.39 per share for Q2.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend payout below $0.39 per share.
Why it matters: A lower charge-off rate means better credit quality and risk control.
Supportive ifLease charge-off rate reported below 8.8%.
Worry ifLease charge-off rate reported above 9.5%.
Why it matters: This guidance will test if the company can maintain revenue growth amid sector challenges.
Watch forQ3 revenue was $1.15 billion or more.
Also watch forQ3 revenue was less than $1.05 billion.
Why it matters: Brigit's strong growth is important for revenue and investor trust.
Supportive ifBrigit's revenue grew more than 30% from last year.
Worry ifBrigit revenue grew less than 30% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,016 loss on $10,000 · 40.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The dividend payout shows how well Upbound is managing its capital. Changes can affect investor trust.
Watch forDividend payout remains stable or increases in the Q2 earnings report.
Also watch forDividend payout is cut or suspended in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: This shows if Upbound is improving its revenue growth after a slow period.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising guidance shows confidence. It shows good business performance during tough times.
Supportive ifFull-year revenue guidance of $4.70–$4.85 billion is reaffirmed or raised.
Worry ifFull-year revenue guidance is now below $4.70 billion.
Why it matters: New leaders can change company plans. This can impact how well the company does.
Worry ifNew leaders have strong experience and a clear plan.
Less concerning ifMore leaders leaving or unclear plans from new leaders.
Why it matters: This growth helps us see how stable Rent-A-Center is.
Supportive ifRent-A-Center's sales growth was over 1.5%.
Worry ifRent-A-Center's sales growth was under 1.5%.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows better cost management and efficiency. This is a key goal.
Supportive ifOperating income grew by more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is reported at or below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower charge-off rate shows better quality and can increase profits.
Supportive ifAcima lease charge-off rate was below 8.5%.
Worry ifAcima lease charge-off rate was above 8.8%.