Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.14+7.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UPBD — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-05-19
Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — Mr. Bryan Pechersky: Mr. Pechersky resigned from his roles at the company.
Why it matters: Brigit is growing fast and adding users. More growth would support Upbound’s plan to expand this business.
Supportive ifA later quarter reports Brigit revenue growth of at least 30% year over year, with paying users above 1.84 million.
Worry ifBrigit revenue growth falls below 20% year over year, or paying users drop below 1.84 million.
Why it matters: Upbound cited consumer spending and payment behavior as risks. Weak retail sales or rising jobless claims could add pressure.
Worry ifThe November 17 retail sales report shows a drop from a year ago, or weekly jobless claims rise from the prior report.
Less concerning ifRetail sales grow year over year, while weekly jobless claims stay flat or fall.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $409 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,264 loss on $10,000 · 32.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.