United Parcel Service (UPS)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$111.97+1.77%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.97. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 UPS trades at 17× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median. Our $119 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $76–$127. Not investment advice.
$76.00 – $127.00 (median $115.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.25/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $115.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $43.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $27.80 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $53.08 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $207.38 | 19.0 | 12.14 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $149.14 | 28.1 | 5.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $210.63 | 31.3 | 6.74 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $367.17 | 3.5 | 103.90 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $241.38 | 35.8 | 6.74 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $38.89 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $107.93 | 16.0 | 6.74 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $216.92 | 31.3 | 6.94 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $94.19 | 28.1 | 3.36 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $268.92 | 31.3 | 8.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $409.05 | 3.5 | 115.75 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $308.18 | 35.8 | 8.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $137.80 | 16.0 | 8.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $69.33 | 28.1 | 2.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $286.14 | 31.3 | 9.16 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $435.23 | 3.5 | 123.16 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $327.91 | 35.8 | 9.16 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $146.62 | 16.0 | 9.16 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.