United Parcel Service (UPS)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$102.29-1.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
UPS — President transition
Dated 2026-08-31
Executive Vice President and President, International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions — Kate Gutmann: The filing announces the planned retirement of a senior executive with a named internal successor and a transitional period, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Higher spending may show strong growth plans or poor resource management.
Worry ifCapital spending was at or below $3.0 billion.
Less concerning ifCapital spending was above $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: UPS needs a higher operating margin to reach 9.6%. This shows better cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 operating margin improves to at least 7.5%.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, operating margin is under 7.5%.
Why it matters: Clear plans for spending show a focus on growth and improvements.
Watch forSpending plans confirmed at $3.0 billion or more for 2026.
Also watch forSpending plans were below $3.0 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change strategy and how things are done.
Watch forGood performance metrics after the CFO change.
Also watch forBad performance metrics after the CFO change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,988 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This target is key to achieving the full-year profit goal of $8.65 billion. Meeting it shows effective cost management.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, non-GAAP adjusted operating profit is $2.15 billion or more.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, non-GAAP adjusted operating profit is less than $1.9 billion.
Why it matters: This revenue target helps meet the full-year goal of $91.2 billion. It shows strong demand and good execution.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, consolidated revenue is $23.5 billion or more.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, consolidated revenue is less than $22 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows the company is on track with growth plans. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $89.7 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $89.7 billion.
Why it matters: UPS plans $3.0 billion in capital expenditures. Clarity on this spending will show how the company invests in growth and efficiency.
Watch forUPS plans to spend $3.0 billion on capital in 2026.
Also watch forUPS cuts capital spending from $3.0 billion to a lower amount.
Why it matters: Going over this number shows strong demand and good growth strategies.
Supportive ifFull-year revenue was above $91.2 billion.
Worry ifFull-year revenue was below $91.2 billion.
Why it matters: Domestic revenue trends indicate demand health. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifU.S. domestic revenue declines more than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifU.S. domestic revenue grows year over year.
Why it matters: Stable growth shows recovery in volumes and pricing power. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifU.S. Domestic Segment revenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifU.S. Domestic Segment revenue growth falls below 3% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm the momentum from Q2 and support the raised full-year revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 consolidated revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 consolidated revenue growth falls below 6% year over year.