United Parcel Service (UPS)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$114.31+4.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UPS — CFO transition
Dated 2026-11-04
Director — Shannon Eisenhardt: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the Board, which is a governance change but not the departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: UPS raised its full-year revenue outlook after Q3 growth across all segments. Q4 results will test whether that growth lasts through the holiday quarter.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue is at least $25.7B.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $25.7B.
Why it matters: UPS has reported about $1.8B in program benefits through the first nine months. Reaching nearly $3B would show the plan is on track.
Supportive ifUPS reports nearly $3B in 2026 benefits from its network and efficiency program.
Worry ifUPS reports 2026 program benefits below $2.5B.
Why it matters: UPS raised its free cash flow target, while its dividend plan remains subject to board approval. Cash results and the board decision will test both plans.
Watch forUPS reports 2026 adjusted free cash flow of at least $6.1B and confirms about $5.4B in dividend payments.
Also watch forUPS reports adjusted free cash flow below $6.1B or does not confirm the planned dividend payments.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,220 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.