Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.05-1.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 41.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 35.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UPST — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Upstar t Holdings, Inc. (“Upstart”) reported financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Why it matters: A flat or lower margin may mean trouble in managing costs as growth happens.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or below 21% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 21% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show bigger problems in the financial sector for Upstart.
Worry ifSector revenue growth at 10% or more shows good growth.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth under 10% shows possible problems ahead.
Why it matters: A slowdown in originations growth may mean less demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ3 originations growth is below 50% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 originations growth is at or above 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows management's growth plan is working.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reaches $1.4 billion for full-year 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue falls short of $1.4 billion for full-year 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$267 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $755 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,486 loss on $10,000 · 64.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: His experience in consumer lending could shape Upstart's growth strategy. Changes may signal a shift in focus or priorities.
Watch forPositive news or actions tied to Tim Wennes' leadership after May 28, 2026.
Also watch forNo major changes or actions tied to Tim Wennes' leadership after May 28, 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to hitting the $1.4 billion revenue target for 2026.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth is reported below 18% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth exceeds 18% year over year.