Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.38+9.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put UPST beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Finance is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 39% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 17%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 58% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskUpstart's 42% revenue growth has to keep compounding to justify the price. The company missed its Q2 earnings target by 46.7%. It trades at 3.2x book value versus a 1.3x peer median. The price reflects less growth than we forecast. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 43%. The thesis comparison is not yet verified. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. UPST is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering UPST (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for UPST in the last 4 months.
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Compare UPST with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Finance — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put UPST next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Achieve approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $23.38
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $23.38.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
EBITDA margin guidance exceeds 21% target.
Advances: Achieve $1.4 billion total revenue in 2026
Q3 beat supports 2026 revenue growth trajectory.
Threatens: Repurchase $100 million of common stock
Insider selling may signal lack of confidence in future performance.
Threatens: Repurchase $100 million of common stock
Capital concerns may hinder stock repurchase plans.
Advances: Achieve $1.4 billion total revenue in 2026
Launch of Upstart Bank supports revenue growth objective.
Advances: Achieve approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026
Focus on profit aligns with EBITDA margin objective.
Advances: Achieve $1.4 billion total revenue in 2026
Positive outlook on AI lending supports growth.
Increased competition from chipmakers could impact market position.
