Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.38+9.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.93 → 1.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UPST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026 | A primary condition in Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~21% adjusted EBITDA margin. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 15% in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with a loss-making earnings profile, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is watchful: company momentum improved and the signal shifted from cautious to mixed, while recent performance still trails its industry cohort.
UPST trades at a 2.37-times premium to peers, and the valuation evidence describes it as expensive. The model shows an expectations gap of -0.29, but confidence in that estimate is low; the premium appears tied to expectations of durable strength even as recent results remain weak.
Near term, revenue growth supports management’s 2026 revenue goal: revenue rose from $308 million in Q1 to $365 million in Q2, and management has reiterated its full-year target. The adjusted EBITDA margin remained at 21%, while consecutive earnings misses and a 43% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk. Recent momentum has improved, but management is rated neutral and the evidence does not yet show a clear earnings recovery.
The thesis depends on continued revenue growth and progress from the current loss-making profile, while preserving the stated margin goal. A guidance cut or further earnings misses would weaken the near-term case; sector strength could help, while the evidence also flags rate cuts as a sector headwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UPST’s thesis rests on turning revenue growth into stronger financial performance, but the current evidence remains mixed and the valuation is expensive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Insiders are buying shares, showing confidence. |
| Under Pressure |
| No insider buying and increased insider selling over next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage and resolve securities class action risks | A supporting condition in Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material adverse legal rulings or settlements. | Intact | Material negative legal rulings or settlements announced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $1.4 billion revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1400 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $1.0 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $370.522M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1400 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026370,522,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.90 → $1.64 · observed estimates
$1.86B → $1.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.90 | $1,863,357,190 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.37 | $1,863,237,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.37 | $1,863,237,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.90 | $1,863,265,609 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.37 | $1,863,237,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.90 | $1,863,265,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.37 | $1,863,237,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.90 | $1,863,265,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.90 | $1,863,265,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.90 | $1,863,265,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.90 | $1,863,265,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.37 | $1,863,237,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.37 | $1,863,237,890 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.90 | $1,863,265,505 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.25 | $1,863,350,930 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.25 | $1,863,350,930 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.82 | $1,862,136,646 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.82 | $1,862,762,541 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.82 | $1,862,762,541 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.82 | $1,862,762,541 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.82 | $1,859,093,587 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.82 | $1,859,093,587 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.82 | $1,859,093,587 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.82 | $1,859,093,587 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.82 | $1,859,093,587 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.82 | $1,859,093,587 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.82 | $1,860,092,818 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.82 | $1,860,092,818 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.82 | $1,860,092,818 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.82 | $1,860,092,818 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.82 | $1,860,092,818 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.82 | $1,860,092,818 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.82 | $1,860,092,818 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.84 | $1,860,092,012 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.84 | $1,860,092,012 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.84 | $1,860,092,012 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.84 | $1,860,092,012 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.84 | $1,860,092,012 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.85 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,765 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.93 | $1,859,380,050 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.93 | $1,859,380,050 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,765 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,765 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,765 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.93 | $1,859,415,016 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.93 | $1,859,454,659 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.93 | $1,859,454,659 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.93 | $1,859,454,659 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.93 | $1,859,454,659 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.93 | $1,859,454,659 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.93 | $1,859,454,659 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.93 | $1,859,454,659 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.94 | $1,860,127,230 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.94 | $1,863,398,829 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.93 | $1,858,436,079 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.93 | $1,860,587,521 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.93 | $1,860,587,521 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.93 | $1,860,587,521 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.93 | $1,860,587,521 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.93 | $1,858,801,807 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.64 | $1,802,661,843 | 7 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.