Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Upwork, Inc. (UPWK)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.32-0.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.36 → 1.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UPWK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AI-related work growth above 40% YoY | AI-related work grew over 40% year-over-year in Q1 2026, showing strong growth potential. | Intact | AI-related work growth falls below 20% YoY in next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented online work platform with a multi-year thesis that depends on expanding AI-related activity and client relationships. The thesis is intact, but the evidence is mixed: company quality has improved, while recent results and the broader sector remain uncertain.
UPWK is described as cheap versus peers, but valuation-model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not show that expectations are especially demanding.
Near term, a recent earnings miss and erratic earnings surprises leave room for further estimate pressure, though the stated miss risk is relatively low. Over the multi-year view, AI-related work has grown at a double-digit pace and client expansion is on track, while restructuring has yet to show much immediate cost reduction.
The thesis depends on continued growth in AI-related work and SMB and enterprise clients, alongside the restructuring plan producing more efficiency by late 2026. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; sector bellwethers’ results and guidance could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, UPWK has evidence of improving business quality and expanding growth areas, but high risk, a recent miss, and sector headwinds make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Share buybacks and new credit support financial health. |
| Intact |
| Capital allocation worsens financial health or buybacks stop |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement restructuring plan with 24% workforce reduction | Upwork is cutting costs with a 24% workforce reduction to improve profits. | Under Pressure | Restructuring plan stalls or cost savings fail to materialize | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $1.52 in FY 2026 | The company guides revenue near $775 million for 2026 with EPS around $1.52. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.50 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.52. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near $775 million in FY 2026 | The company guides revenue near $775 million for 2026 with EPS around $1.52. | Broken | Revenue falls below $760 million in FY 2026 | Revenue: $185.599M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$775 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026185,599,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.74 → $1.11 · observed estimates
$0.82B → $0.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.74 | $822,935,540 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.74 | $822,935,540 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.74 | $822,935,540 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.74 | $822,935,540 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.74 | $822,935,540 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.74 | $822,935,540 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.74 | $822,932,922 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.36 | $736,648,762 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.36 | $736,652,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.36 | $736,653,532 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.35 | $734,388,624 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.35 | $734,388,624 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.35 | $734,388,624 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.29 | $725,112,035 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.11 | $706,615,084 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.