Upwork, Inc. (UPWK)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.33+4.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPWK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UPWK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026, Upwork Inc., or the Company, will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purpos…
Why it matters: Upwork began moving Lifted clients to its new platform in June. Growth in EOR GSV can show whether that move is gaining traction.
Supportive ifA later earnings release reports Lifted platform migrations and EOR GSV growth above 29% year over year.
Worry ifA later earnings release reports stalled migrations or EOR GSV growth below 29% year over year.
Why it matters: Business Plus is a key SMB growth effort. Its client count rose 219% year over year in Q2, though quarter-over-quarter growth slowed.
Supportive ifA later earnings release reports Business Plus active clients up at least 100% year over year.
Worry ifA later earnings release reports Business Plus active clients up less than 50% year over year or down year over year.
Why it matters: Upwork said the cuts would be mostly done by Q4. Lower costs could help margins, but Q2 cash flow fell sharply year over year.
Watch forUpwork reports the workforce cuts are complete by Q4 2026 and adjusted EBITDA margin is above 33%.
Also watch forUpwork reports that cuts are still not done after Q4 2026, or adjusted EBITDA margin is below 33%.
Why it matters: AI-related work grew 22% in Q2, down from 40% in Q1. Growth above 20% would show strong demand is holding.
Supportive ifA later earnings release reports AI-related GSV growth above 20% year over year.
Worry ifA later earnings release reports AI-related GSV growth below 20% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $568 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,454 loss on $10,000 · 64.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.