United Rentals (URI)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1123.79-4.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · URI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
URI — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-10-29
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 29, 2026, URNA repaid all of its outstanding obligations under the Term Loan Facility using a portion of the net proceeds from the Notes.
Why it matters: Fleet productivity rose 6.5% in Q3 as rental revenue grew. A strong next report would show that demand remains firm.
Supportive ifThe next reported fleet productivity change is above 6% year over year.
Worry ifThe next reported fleet productivity change is below 3.4%, the Q2 2026 rate.
Why it matters: URI raised its revenue range after record Q3 sales. Meeting the new floor would back up its growth story.
Supportive if2026 total revenue is at least $18.0 billion, within or above the raised $18.0 billion to $18.2 billion range.
Worry if2026 total revenue is below $18.0 billion.
Why it matters: URI reported $1.125 billion of repurchases through Q3 and gave a $1.5 billion full-year plan. The final amount will test that plan.
Supportive ifURI reports at least $1.5 billion of share repurchases for 2026.
Worry ifURI reports less than $1.5 billion of share repurchases for 2026.
Why it matters: The board set a $1.97 dividend, payable November 25. A payment would confirm this stated cash return; a change would not.
Supportive ifURI pays $1.97 per share on November 25, 2026, to holders on record November 11.
Worry ifURI changes, delays, or cancels the November 25 payment.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $344 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,552 loss on $10,000 · 25.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Specialty rental sales grew fast, and its margin rose to 47.6% in Q3. A drop would show that added sales carry lower profit.
Worry ifSpecialty rentals gross margin falls below 47% in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifSpecialty rentals gross margin stays at or above 47% in a later quarter.