United Rentals (URI)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1009.86+1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · URI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
URI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-18
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 18, 2026, United Rentals, Inc. (the “Company”), United Rentals (North America), Inc. (“URNA”) and United Rentals Receivables LLC II (the “SPV”) entered into the Amendment No. 18 to Third Amended and Restated Receivables Purchase Agreement (the “Amendment”), by and among URNA, as Originator, the SPV, as Seller, the Company, as Collection Agent, Liberty Street Funding LLC, as a Purchaser (“Liberty”), Gotham Funding Corporation, as a Purchaser…
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow shows good capital management. It helps with ongoing share buybacks.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q3 exceeds $2 billion.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q3 drops below $1.8 billion.
Why it matters: If rental revenue growth slows, it may show less demand in construction.
Worry ifQ3 rental revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 rental revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA margin may mean costs are rising or profits are falling.
Worry ifIn Q3, the adjusted EBITDA margin is below 44%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 44%.
Why it matters: Stable free cash flow shows the company can make cash. This helps its growth plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow guidance remains between $2.15 billion and $2.45 billion for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance is revised down below $2.15 billion for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,004 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow may show problems with cash and spending.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $2.15 billion for the year.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains above $2.15 billion for the year.
Why it matters: More spending can show growth and plans for the future.
Supportive ifSpending was over $3.35 billion for 2026.
Worry ifSpending was below $2.95 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: The share buyback updates show that management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished $1.5 billion in share buybacks for 2026.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or cuts in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending shows growth investments. It shows confidence in future demand.
Supportive ifQ2 capital spending goes over $150 million. This shows a focus on growth.
Worry ifQ2 capital spending drops below $100 million. This suggests less growth investment.
Why it matters: A sector rebound could help URI's performance. This may change how investors feel.
Watch forSector revenue growth is above 6% compared to last year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is below 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending shows strong growth plans. It means more investment in fleet expansion.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending for 2026 is over $3.5 billion.
Worry ifTotal capital spending for 2026 is below $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show good capital management and focus on returns.
Supportive ifShare repurchases total $1.5 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases total less than $1.5 billion by the end of 2026.