U.S. Bancorp (USB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$59.75-2.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers
USB — President transition
Dated 2026-10-29
Chief Risk Officer — Jodi L. Richard: The immediate resignation of the Vice Chair and Chief Risk Officer creates a leadership vacuum in a critical risk management role, requiring an interim appointment and a search for a successor.
Why it matters: Net interest margin rose to 2.84% in Q3. A further rise would support growth in income from lending.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 2.84%.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin is below 2.79%, its Q2 2026 level.
Why it matters: Revenue grew faster than costs in Q3, with 240 basis points of positive operating leverage. Another positive result would show this trend continued.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue grew faster than expenses year over year. This shows positive operating leverage.
Worry ifQ4 expense growth matches or exceeds revenue growth year over year.
Why it matters: BTIG helped lift capital markets revenue by 69.3% year over year. The next report can show whether that gain holds.
Supportive ifQ4 capital markets revenue is at least $640 million, the Q3 2026 level.
Worry ifQ4 capital markets revenue falls below $378 million, the Q3 2025 level.
Why it matters: The risk chief left on October 29. A named successor would fill a key leadership gap.
Supportive ifU.S. Bancorp names a permanent Chief Risk Officer in a public filing or release.
Worry ifThe role is still interim or vacant when the January 19, 2027 earnings report comes out.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,621 loss on $10,000 · 16.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The pilot tested cross-border payments on Stellar. A live client use would show progress beyond an internal test.
Supportive ifU.S. Bank announces a live USBDC payment for an outside client or a new live use beyond the pilot.
Worry ifU.S. Bank reports no new live use and pauses or ends work on USBDC.
Why it matters: The Q3 net charge-off ratio improved to 0.51%. A rise would point to weaker loan performance.
Worry ifQ4 net charge-off ratio rises above 0.56%, the Q3 2025 level.
Less concerning ifQ4 net charge-off ratio stays at or below 0.51%.