U.S. Bancorp (USB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.37-0.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
USB — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-24
by reference. The Company also announced that its planned capital actions include an increase in the Company’s quarterly common stock dividend from $0.52 to $0.54 per share (subject to approval by the Company’s Board of Directors), starting in the third quarter of 2026. Forward-Looking Statements THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION APPEARS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995: This current report contains forward-looking statements about the Company. Statements that a…
Why it matters: Success in this partnership could drive growth in a key market segment for U.S. Bancorp.
Supportive ifU.S. Bancorp announces the launch of the Amazon small business credit card.
Worry ifNo news or delays about the partnership announcement.
Why it matters: Growth in loans and deposits helps management focus on expanding these areas.
Supportive ifAverage total loans and deposits grow by at least 2% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifLoan and deposit balances decline or grow less than 2% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong performance.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 earnings per share reported at or above $1.05.
Worry ifQ4 2026 earnings per share reported below $1.05.
Why it matters: Loan growth is a key indicator of bank expansion and profitability. Growth above this level shows strong demand.
Supportive ifAverage total loans are above $378.5 billion in the next quarters.
Worry ifAverage total loans are below $378.5 billion in the next quarters.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $208 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,621 loss on $10,000 · 16.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will show if earnings growth continues and if management meets its targets.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $1.05. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $0.91, suggesting weaker results.
Why it matters: Better efficiency ratio means better cost management. A worse ratio may mean rising costs that hurt profit.
Watch forThe efficiency ratio will drop below 57% in the next quarter.
Also watch forEfficiency ratio worsens to above 58% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Slowing growth in net interest income may mean less loan demand. This is important for profit.
Worry ifNet interest income growth falls below 4% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth stays above 4% year-over-year. This shows strong loan demand.
Why it matters: Raising the dividend shows financial strength. It can attract more investors.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the dividend increase to $0.54 per share starting in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company announces no increase in the dividend or a decrease.
Why it matters: The partnership with Amazon for small business credit cards could boost revenue. Success here may signal strong demand for U.S. Bank's offerings.
Supportive ifThere are high adoption rates for the new Amazon credit cards.
Worry ifThere are low adoption rates and bad feedback from small business customers about the new credit cards.
Why it matters: Worsening credit quality may show rising risks in loans. This could affect earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-off ratio exceeds 0.44% in Q4 2023.
Less concerning ifNet charge-off ratio remains at or below 0.44% in Q4 2023.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for U.S. Bancorp. A drop below 12% signals a slowdown.
Worry ifU.S. Bancorp's revenue growth remains above 12% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below 12% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Growth in net income would support the trend of sustainable earnings growth management aims for.
Supportive ifNet income for Q4 exceeds $1.5 billion, showing growth from Q3.
Worry ifNet income falls below $1.5 billion. This shows possible problems in earnings growth.
Why it matters: A higher dividend might show strong financial results. It can also show confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifU.S. Bancorp raises its quarterly common stock dividend above $0.54 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend remains at $0.54 or decreases in the next announcement.
Why it matters: A higher net charge-off ratio may mean weaker credit quality.
Worry ifThe net charge-off ratio is above 0.60%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-off ratio remains below 0.60%.
Why it matters: The partnership with the NFL could enhance brand visibility and attract new customers. Success may lead to increased banking and wealth management clients.
Supportive ifNew programs from the NFL partnership show good engagement with players and fans.
Worry ifThere are no new programs or bad news about the NFL partnership.
Why it matters: This program could signal confidence in the company's financial health and support stock price.
Supportive ifThe company will start buying back shares in the $5 billion program by early 2025.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows good money management. It also shows trust in future profits.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a common stock dividend increase beyond $0.54 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the common stock dividend from the current $0.54 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin will show how well the bank handles interest rates.
Worry ifNet interest margin improves from 2.81% in Q3 2023.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin falls below 2.81%. This signals worsening conditions.