Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
US Foods (USFD)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.93+8.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.57 → 5.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for USFD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve 9% to 13% EBITDA growth in 2026 | A supporting condition in US Foods's published investment case. The stated target is 9% to 13% EBITDA growth. | Under Pressure | EBITDA growth falls below 9% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a food-service distributor with a cyclical business, meaning its results can be affected by shifts in the economy and customer demand. The long-term thesis is intact and has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though management’s record is neutral and the evidence carries medium confidence.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with low signs of fragility, but USFD trades at a 1.52 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is modest at 0.07, so the evidence does not point to unusually low expectations; valuation is neutral overall.
Near term, recent performance is strong: second-quarter adjusted diluted EPS grew 21% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA grew 10.2%. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 growth goals, and the reported trajectory is on track, though the snapshot notes a high-miss-rate industry and recent misses; the next guidance update remains important.
The multi-year view depends on USFD delivering its 2026 sales, adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA goals. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would raise concern about demand, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the business backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, the business setup is supported by strong recent results and a favorable sector backdrop, but the peer valuation premium and cyclical risks leave execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in US Foods's published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 24% EPS growth. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS growth falls below 18% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 4% to 6% net sales growth in 2026 | A primary condition in US Foods's published investment case. The stated target is 4% to 6% net sales growth. | Under Pressure | net sales growth falls below 4% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Importantly, our results are in line with our long-range plan, including 10% Adjusted EBITDA growth and 21% Adjusted Diluted EPS growth driven by 29 basis points of margin expansion and 5% independent restaurant case growth.” “2 Outlook for Fiscal Year 2026 2 The Company is reaffirming its Fiscal Year 2026 guidance provided on February 12, 2026 of: • Net Sales growth of 4% to 6% • Adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% to 13% • Adjusted Diluted EPS growth of 18% to 24% The guidance provided above includes the impact of a 53rd week in fiscal year 2026, which is expected to add approximately 1% to total case growth and Adjusted EBITDA growth.” Revenue was $10.532 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.52 → $5.55 · observed estimates
$43.10B → $43.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.52 | $43,103,527,043 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.52 | $43,103,527,043 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.51 | $43,104,260,454 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.51 | $43,104,260,454 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.51 | $43,104,260,454 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.51 | $43,104,260,454 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.51 | $43,104,260,454 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.51 | $43,104,258,857 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.56 | $43,224,699,344 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.56 | $43,223,839,884 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.57 | $43,250,257,018 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.57 | $43,229,548,514 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.57 | $43,229,548,514 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.57 | $43,229,548,514 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.57 | $43,229,548,514 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.57 | $43,229,548,514 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.57 | $43,227,905,657 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.56 | $43,207,455,253 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.56 | $43,202,669,539 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.56 | $43,202,669,539 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.56 | $43,202,669,539 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.56 | $43,202,669,539 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.56 | $43,202,669,539 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.55 | $43,173,804,036 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.55 | $43,173,804,036 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.55 | $43,173,804,036 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.55 | $43,181,175,465 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.55 | $43,181,175,465 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.55 | $43,181,175,465 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.55 | $43,181,175,465 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.55 | $43,181,175,465 | 8 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.