US Foods (USFD)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.93+8.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USFD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
USFD — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-10-02
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Independent restaurants drove volume gains in both reported quarters. A sharp drop would weaken this growth signal.
Watch forQ3 independent restaurant case volume growth is 5% or higher year over year.
Also watch forQ3 independent restaurant case volume growth falls below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: US Foods reported $5.2 billion of net debt and 2.6 times leverage in Q2. The October loan change may affect debt levels.
Watch forThe next filing shows net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA at or below 2.6 times. Net debt does not rise much.
Also watch forThe next filing shows leverage above 2.6 times or a material rise in net debt.
Why it matters: US Foods kept its 2026 targets after Q2. The Nov. 5 report will show whether growth stays on track.
Watch forQ3 results keep net sales growth on pace at 4% to 6%. Adjusted EBITDA growth stays on pace at 9% to 13%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth at 18% to 24%.
Also watch forUS Foods cuts any of those 2026 growth ranges, or Q3 results put them out of reach.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $262 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,109 loss on $10,000 · 21.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.