US Foods (USFD)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.04-0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USFD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
USFD — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026, US Foods, Inc. (“US Foods”) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to its existing ABL Credit Agreement, dated as of May 31, 2019, as amended, restated, modified or supplemented from time to time, by and among US Foods, the other Loan Parties (defined in the ABL Agreement), each lender and issuing lender from time to time party thereto, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collateral agent (th…
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to US Foods' overall performance and market share gains.
Worry ifIndependent restaurant case growth was under 5% for Q3.
Less concerning ifIndependent restaurant case growth reported at or above 5% for Q3.
Why it matters: A better ratio means stronger financial health and less risk from debt.
Supportive ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improves to below 2.6x.
Worry ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio rises above 2.7x.
Why it matters: High capital spending could impact cash flow and leverage ratios. It’s important for financial health.
Worry ifTotal capital spending is over $200 million for the fiscal year.
Less concerning ifTotal capital spending stays under $200 million for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: New repurchase plans could signal confidence in cash flow and future performance.
Supportive ifA new share buyback program was announced. It is over $100 million.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: If revenue growth gets better, it may mean the Consumer Staples sector is recovering.
Supportive ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth stays below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling below this target could mean less demand or problems with operations.
Worry ifNet sales growth in Q3 is reported below 4%.
Less concerning ifNet sales growth in Q3 meets or exceeds 4%.
Why it matters: If EPS growth falls short, it may indicate profit margin pressures.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth was below 18%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth meets or exceeds 18%.
Why it matters: Lower growth could mean problems with operations or higher costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth was below 9%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth meets or exceeds 9%.
Why it matters: A slowdown could indicate cash flow issues or a shift in capital strategy.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $200 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases remain above $200 million in a quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,109 loss on $10,000 · 21.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.