Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (USLM)
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$119.41-3.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.70 → 6.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for USLM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities near $32 million quarterly | Cash from operations was $32 million in Q1 2026, showing some cash generation. | Intact | quarterly cash flow falls below $25 million | Cash from operations: $52.172M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$30 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 202652,172,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a materials business with a durable valuation premium, supported by a sector tailwind. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is low and near-term execution is mixed.
USLM trades at a premium to peers, which suggests the market gives credit to the durability of its business. The expectations gap is modest, and the valuation reading has fallen recently; the evidence does not show that expectations are especially fragile.
Near term, the new Texas kiln has started intermittent production, but final commissioning is still pending and integration inefficiencies weighed on gross profit. Revenue rose year over year in the latest quarter, mainly from steel customers, while construction demand was reduced and fuel and transportation costs remained a pressure. Recent earnings misses make the next report an important execution check.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing kiln commissioning and managing cost pressures without further weakening results. Construction demand also matters, while continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers could support or erode the sector tailwind. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative.
For the 1-3 year view, the business case remains intact, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is low. Kiln execution, construction demand, costs, and sector conditions are the key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in United States Lime & Minerals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS meets or exceeds $5.14 in FY26. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $4.50 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 20% next year | Analysts expect revenue growth of about 20% next year. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.84 → $6.02 · observed estimates
$0.48B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.84 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.70 | $473,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.02 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.02 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.