United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (USLM)
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$116.69+0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USLM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
USLM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On July 29, 2026, United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a News Release announcing the financial results for the quarter and six-months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the News Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein in response to this
Why it matters: The materials sector is in decline. Recovery could signal a better environment for USLM's growth.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive for the first time in three years.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is still negative or getting worse.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows better financial health. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $34.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $34.5 million.
Why it matters: Missing earnings can show problems in how the company runs. This can make investors worried.
Worry ifAnother earnings miss is reported for Q3.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings match or are better than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. A drop below this level raises concerns about financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains above $30 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations falls below $30 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $367 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,006 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in demand from construction customers can greatly affect revenue and growth.
Watch forDemand from construction customers shows a clear increase in Q2 2026.
Also watch forDemand from construction customers keeps falling in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A expenses can improve net income. It shows better cost management.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses decrease year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth from construction customers is important for revenue. It shows demand is stable.
Supportive ifQ3 revenues from construction customers go up compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenues from construction customers go down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Strong demand from construction customers drives revenue growth. Sustained growth confirms the positive trend.
Supportive ifRevenue from construction customers increases by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue from construction customers declines or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in Q3 revenues would signal ongoing issues in demand. It would indicate potential challenges in the business.
Worry ifQ3 revenues fall below $90 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenues exceed $90 million.
Why it matters: The materials sector is in decline. A recovery could improve USLM's performance.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the materials sector turns positive.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the materials sector remains negative.
Why it matters: Growth above 5% would indicate strong demand recovery. Lower growth could raise concerns.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: The new kiln is key for increasing production capacity and meeting demand. If it starts on time, it supports growth plans.
Supportive ifThe kiln starts operations as planned in summer 2026.
Worry ifThe kiln's startup is delayed beyond summer 2026.