Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.18+5.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.42 → 3.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for USPH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including dividends | A supporting condition in U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase dividend at >= $0.46 per share quarterly. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.44 per share quarterly | Dividend per share: $0.46 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or increase dividend at >= $0.46 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.46 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
USPH is a growth-oriented healthcare business, with expansion coming from existing clinics, acquisitions, and hospital partnerships. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is neutral, management execution has been volatile, and near-term risk is elevated.
USPH is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to a re-rating as the main driver of that premium. The expectations gap is meaningful, while the evidence does not show a broader stack of weak fundamentals and turbulence being priced in.
Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 8% from the first quarter, and visits per clinic per day increased. Acquisitions and clinic growth are progressing, while hospital partnerships are still phasing in and are expected to contribute at least $14 million of EBITDA in 2027. The main near-term concern is a run of earnings misses, alongside a 46% estimated miss probability and the risk of a guidance cut.
The next call matters: guidance remains reaffirmed as of August 10, but a cut would be a meaningful setback. A weakening jobs trend could also pressure healthcare businesses, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers HCA, THC, and EHC would support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on clinic growth and acquisitions continuing, and hospital affiliations delivering their expected contribution.
For the next 1 to 3 years, USPH combines strong recent operating performance and a supportive sector backdrop with elevated execution risk and an expensive valuation. The long-term thesis remains intact, but depends on earnings execution and partnership growth matching expectations. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Hospital partnerships contribute EBITDA | Strategic hospital partnerships aim to add $14 million EBITDA in 2027. | Intact | Hospital partnership EBITDA contribution falls below $10 million in 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Taking into account the year-to-date 2026 results and the expected increasing benefit of hospital affiliations in the back half of the year, we are reaffirming our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $102 million to $106 million.” “Once these hospital clinics are fully onboarded, that will provide additional lift as we finish the year and head into 2027.” Revenue was $214.059 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Grow revenue through organic expansion and acquisitions | A primary condition in U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In addition to increasing revolver availability, the new credit facility also contains a $125 million accordion, providing sufficient liquidity to fund sizable future acquisitions.” “As we discussed, our improved and expanded credit facility gives us the dry powder to make good decisions about our growth and provides us with the resources and capital that we need to run the company, grow and expand where it make sense in PT and industrial injury prevention, invest in new technologies, resources, and people to make our growth plan happen.” Revenue was $198.286 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Implement technology to improve efficiency and revenue capture | A supporting condition in U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Successful rollout of semi-virtual front desk and AI documentation by end 2026. | Intact | Technology initiatives fail to launch or show no efficiency gains by end 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We’re more than halfway through our expected ramp in there.” “These objectives include semi-virtualization of our front desk, which is and will produce savings in both labor as well as overall efficiency and improved authorization consistency.” Gross profit was $41.943 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.41 → $3.40 · observed estimates
$0.90B → $0.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.41 | $895,707,523 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.41 | $895,739,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.41 | $895,739,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.41 | $895,739,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.41 | $895,739,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.41 | $895,707,523 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.41 | $895,707,523 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.41 | $895,707,523 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.41 | $895,707,523 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.41 | $897,431,237 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.42 | $897,459,800 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.41 | $897,431,237 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.42 | $897,459,800 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.41 | $897,431,237 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.42 | $906,484,010 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.40 | $898,888,455 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.44 | $908,455,884 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.38 | $909,865,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.38 | $910,598,741 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.38 | $910,598,741 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.38 | $910,598,741 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.42 | $912,005,672 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.40 | $912,262,815 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.