U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.18+5.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
USPH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 22, 2026, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.(the "Company") entered into a 45-month forward-starting interest rate swap agreement (the “Swap”) with Bank of America, National Association (“Bank of America”) with an initial notional amount of $170.6 million. The Company entered into the Swap to fix, effective June 30, 2027 (which is the expiration date of the Company's existing interest rate swap agreement), the variable component of the interes…
Why it matters: U.S. Physical Therapy said 39 clinics remained for Q3. A full move would finish the NYU clinic rollout and support the 2027 hospital growth plan.
Supportive ifThe company says all 39 remaining clinics joined hospital groups by the end of Q3.
Worry ifThe company reports that any of the 39 clinics did not move by the end of Q3, or gives a later target date.
Why it matters: The new finance and HR system is meant to make work more efficient as the company grows. A delay would push out that change.
Supportive ifThe company confirms that Workday went live in finance and HR at the start of 2027.
Worry ifThe company reports that the Workday launch moved past the start of 2027.
Why it matters: Visit growth supports PT revenue. Q2 visits per clinic reached a company record, while the health care sector's growth trend is slowing.
Supportive ifQ3 visits per clinic per day are at least 33.5, matching Q2's reported record.
Worry ifQ3 visits per clinic per day fall below 31.8, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: PT margin fell from 21.4% a year earlier. Management linked the drop to high health claims and hospital start-up costs.
Watch forQ3 adjusted PT gross margin rises above 19.9%, as reported in Q2.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted PT gross margin stays at or below 19.9%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,266 loss on $10,000 · 32.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The August filing flagged an earnings miss. The next report can show whether strong visits offset pressure from health costs and clinic start-up costs.
Watch forOn November 4, the company keeps its 2026 guidance and reports PT revenue growth above 3% year over year.
Also watch forOn November 4, the company cuts 2026 guidance or reports PT revenue growth at or below 3% year over year.