U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.35+0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
USPH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL RESULTS. On August 5, 2026, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE, NYSE Texas: USPH), a national operator of outpatient physical therapy clinics and provider of industrial injury prevention services, reported results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed to…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how revenue is growing and how well the company runs.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better revenue and margin numbers than Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows declining revenue or margins compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin improves from 19.9% in Q2 to above 20% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls or stays below 19.9% in Q3.
Why it matters: This purchase could increase revenue. It may also help USPH grow its market.
Supportive ifThe purchase adds at least $12 million in yearly revenue and 112,000 visits.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to generate expected revenue or patient visits in the first six months.
Why it matters: More patient visits show strong demand and better operations.
Supportive ifAverage daily visits per clinic exceed 33 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAverage daily visits per clinic fall below 32 in Q3 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,588 loss on $10,000 · 35.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for long-term growth. Weak results could raise concerns.
Supportive ifOperating income is better in Q2 results than in earlier quarters.
Worry ifOperating income stays the same or drops in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Changes in Medicare rates can affect revenue and margins. This impacts overall financial health.
Worry ifMedicare rates increase by more than 1.75% as expected.
Less concerning ifIf Medicare rates drop or stay the same, it can hurt revenue.
Why it matters: Updates on clinic expansion are key to revenue growth. Delays could hinder overall performance.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about new clinics or expansion plans in Q2 earnings.
Worry ifManagement did not update on clinic expansion in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: These partnerships will likely increase revenue and EBITDA in the next few quarters.
Supportive ifRevenue from hospital partnerships contributes at least $6 million to USPH in Q2 2026.
Worry ifHospital partnerships bring in less than $3 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could signal continued growth and expansion. Lack of new deals may indicate a slowdown in growth strategy.
Supportive ifMore acquisitions will be announced in 2026.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Successful changes could make operations run better and help future growth.
Watch forWorkday ERP goes live as planned in early 2027.
Also watch forWorkday ERP setup is delayed past early 2027.
Why it matters: Strong growth would show that recent purchases and hospital ties are working.
Supportive ifQ3 physical therapy revenue grows more than 8.4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 physical therapy revenue growth is less than 8.4% year over year.
Why it matters: Good use of tech can make things run better. It can also help patients.
Supportive ifUsing AI for paperwork shows clear gains in speed.
Worry ifNo clear gains in speed or output from tech projects.
Why it matters: Falling adjusted EBITDA may mean there are problems. This can hurt future growth.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was below $25 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was above $25 million.
Why it matters: A successful rollout could bring more patients and money. This would support management's growth plan. Delays might show risks in execution.
Supportive ifCompletion of the NYU partnership rollout by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifSignificant delays in the NYU partnership rollout beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth may show weak demand or problems in execution. This can affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Integrating 39 clinics will show progress in hospital partnerships. This will boost revenue.
Supportive ifAll 39 clinics will join hospital partnerships by the end of Q3.
Worry ifIntegration of remaining clinics is delayed beyond Q3.
Why it matters: More Medicare money per visit shows that pricing and partnerships are working.
Supportive ifMedicare revenue per visit increases by more than 1.75% in Q3.
Worry ifMedicare revenue per visit does not increase or declines.
Why it matters: New partnerships will enhance growth potential and revenue streams in the coming years.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new strategic hospital partnership by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced by the end of Q3.