Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (UTI)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.33+2.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.18 → 1.18 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UTI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS around $0.77 for fiscal 2026 | Earnings per share are expected near $0.77 this year. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.77 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.04 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.77. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.04 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented education business with a sector tailwind, not a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is watchful: enrollment and revenue are growing, while recent performance trails its industry cohort and risk is high.
UTI trades at a durable premium of 2.26 times its peers, and the valuation evidence labels it expensive. The expectations gap is elevated, but confidence in that reading is low; the snapshot also flags the premium as unjustified given execution concerns.
Near-term, continued strategic spending may weigh on margins: third-quarter adjusted EBITDA fell 27.8% as the company invested in growth. Revenue rose 7.2%, new student starts rose 10.9%, and average full-time active students rose 5.8%, but fiscal 2026 revenue and diluted EPS guidance were cut, making the next update important.
The multi-year case depends on North Star strategy investments turning enrollment growth into stronger financial performance without lasting margin pressure. Near-term, another guidance cut or further labor-market weakness would add risk; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UTI’s growth efforts offer a constructive foundation, but weaker guidance, uneven execution, and an expensive valuation leave little room for disappointment. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New student starts target is about 33,000. |
| Broken |
| New student starts fall below 31,500 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $905 million and $915 million for fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Universal Technical Institute, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $905 million and <= $915 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $905 million in FY26 | Revenue: $218.907M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $905 million and <= $915 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026218,907,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.18 → $1.18 · observed estimates
$1.07B → $1.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.18 | $1,065,992,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.