Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (UTI)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.33+2.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 67.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
UTI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-18
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. New Secured Revolving Credit Facility. On August 12, 2026, Universal Technical Institute, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), as borrower, and certain of its subsidiaries (collectively with the Company, the “ Loan Parties ”), entered into a Credit Agreement (“ Credit Agreement ”) with Fifth Third Bank, a national banking association, as lender and as administrative agent, joint lead arranger and sole bookrunner, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.…
Why it matters: New starts rose 10.9% in the third quarter, but UTI lowered its full-year starts range. A miss would add to the risk of slower growth.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 new student starts finish below 31,900, the low end of the updated range.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 new student starts finish within or above the 31,900 to 32,300 range.
Why it matters: The new five-year line gives UTI more borrowing room. Higher use could signal greater cash needs as it funds campuses and other growth plans.
Worry ifA filing shows UTI's drawn balance on the new $200 million line rising above the $95 million drawn on its prior line at June 30.
Less concerning ifA filing shows the drawn balance at or below $95 million, with no further rise.
Why it matters: New campuses are a key part of UTI's growth plan. Strong starts would back up the launch model; weak starts would raise doubts about it.
Watch forA company update says Atlanta and San Antonio starts remain ahead of their launch plans.
Also watch forA company update says starts at either campus fall below its launch plan.
Why it matters: UTI spent $85.4 million on capital costs through June and planned about $110 million for the year. Spending above plan could add pressure to cash flow.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 cash capital spending is above the planned $110 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 cash capital spending is at or below about $110 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $493 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,393 loss on $10,000 · 63.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.