Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Unitil Corporation (UTL)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.54+3.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.47 → 3.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UTL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend growth | A primary condition in Unitil Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.47 in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.47 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.47 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 20260.475 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UTL is a regulated utility with an acquisition-led growth plan and a growing dividend. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and progress on management priorities, but execution quality is fragile and management has been volatile.
Valuation is described as expensive, though it is also marked cheap versus peers, so the comparison depends on the measure used. The expectations gap is close to neutral, and the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified rather than reflecting a broad stack of fragile conditions.
Over the multi-year view, completed acquisitions have expanded the regulated utility platform, and management expects them to support long-term earnings growth. Recent operating income and dividend growth show progress, but quarterly variability and a history of a deep earnings miss leave near-term execution risk; the next guidance update matters.
The thesis depends on acquisitions adding to earnings as expected and on continued progress in operating income and dividend growth. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while easing interest rates or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide support to the sector backdrop.
For the next one to three years, UTL has a credible acquisition-led growth case and an intact thesis, balanced by fragile earnings quality and a valuation assessment that remains expensive overall. The outlook hinges on delivering expected acquisition benefits without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Reconciliations of Non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found herein.” “26-008 Maine - Docket No.”
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026EPS near guidance | Earnings per share are expected near $3.28 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.2 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.08 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $3.2 and $3.36 in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 2, 2026-0.08 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase operating income | A primary condition in Unitil Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $55.9M next 4 quarters. | Intact | Operating income falls below $46.2M next 4 quarters | Operating income: $6.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $55.9M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 20266,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Reconciliations of Non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found herein.” “26-008 Maine - Docket No.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Expand through strategic acquisitions | Unitil grows by buying strategic assets, shown by recent acquisitions. | Intact | No strategic acquisitions completed within 12 months | 1 acquisition completed vs >=1 target News confirms completion of two water company acquisitions in New Hampshire on June 30, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The acquisition of the Aquarion Companies is expected to be earnings accretive over the long-term, supporting Unitil’s long-term earnings per share growth of 5% to 7%.” “Reconciliations of Non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found herein.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.51 → $3.48 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $0.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.51 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.48 | $589,147,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.48 | $589,147,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.48 | $589,147,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.48 | $589,147,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.51 | $588,813,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.48 | $589,147,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.47 | $604,866,615 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.47 | $604,280,782 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.47 | $604,280,767 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.47 | $604,280,767 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.47 | $604,280,767 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.47 | $621,010,586 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.47 | $620,960,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.47 | $620,960,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.47 | $620,960,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.47 | $620,960,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.47 | $620,960,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.47 | $620,960,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.47 | $620,960,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.47 | $621,010,575 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.48 | $621,040,625 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.48 | $621,040,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.48 | $621,040,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.48 | $621,040,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.48 | $621,040,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.48 | $621,040,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.48 | $621,040,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.48 | $621,040,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.48 | $621,091,086 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.48 | $621,091,086 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.48 | $621,091,086 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.48 | $621,091,086 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.48 | $621,091,086 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.48 | $621,091,086 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.48 | $621,091,086 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.48 | $622,939,336 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.