Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.28-0.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.83 → 0.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UTZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital expenditures between $60M and $65M in fiscal 2026 | Capital spending is controlled between $60M and $65M. | Intact | capital expenditures exceed $65M or fall below $60M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $13.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=60 and <=65 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202613,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UTZ is a branded consumer staples business with a growth-and-productivity thesis, but recent performance and earnings quality remain mixed. The current long-term thesis is on watch: priorities show progress, while confidence is medium and performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with a durable premium to peers. That suggests the market already recognizes the business’s perceived staying power, leaving the expectations gap modestly negative rather than showing clear room for a valuation discount to close.
Near term, branded salty snack sales are still growing, though growth moderated from 5.2% in the first quarter to 3.3% in the second. Adjusted gross margin expanded in both quarters, but the year-over-year gain narrowed in the second quarter; guidance had been reaffirmed as of May 28, and the latest earnings event was described as in line. Risk remains high, and the CEO transition and agreement to take Utz private add uncertainty; the available evidence does not establish that closing conditions have been met.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued sales growth in branded snacks and expansion geographies, further productivity savings, and sustained margin gains. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business backdrop, while continued strength from sector peers could support the consumer staples setting. The announced agreement’s completion is another key factor, but progress on its conditions is not established in this evidence.
For the 1-to-3-year view, UTZ has evidence of sales growth and margin execution, but moderated growth, high risk, below-cohort performance, and unresolved agreement conditions keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “◦ Capital expenditures were $13.8 million, and dividends and distributions paid were $9.7 million.” “◦ Capital expenditures were $27.4 million, and dividends and distributions paid were $18.8 million.”
Generate adjusted free cash flow between $60M and $80M in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow is targeted between $60M and $80M. | Intact | adjusted free cash flow falls below $60M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “◦ Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $(25.9) million.” “◦ Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $(26.6) million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stabilize management and avoid further negative events | A supporting condition in Utz Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further major executive departures or negative litigation events. | Under Pressure | Additional CEO/CFO departures or new significant litigation filings occur | 2 major negative events (CEO death, litigation) vs 0 allowed News reports CEO death (Oct 2026) and events log shows new litigation filing (May 2026) and supply chain officer departure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2% to 3% revenue growth in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Utz Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2% and <=3% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 1.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2% and <=3% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261.390783 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.84 → $0.83 · observed estimates
$1.51B → $1.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.84 | $1,514,430,103 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.84 | $1,514,430,103 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.84 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.84 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.84 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.84 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.83 | $1,513,418,303 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.83 | $1,512,341,414 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.83 | $1,508,260,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.83 | $1,508,259,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.83 | $1,508,791,542 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.83 | $1,508,456,008 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.84 | $1,508,074,678 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.84 | $1,508,074,678 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.84 | $1,507,247,614 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.84 | $1,507,247,614 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.84 | $1,507,247,614 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.83 | $1,507,247,614 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.83 | $1,507,247,614 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.