Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.21-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UTZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers
UTZ — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Utz Brands, Inc. (NYSE: UTZ) (the “Company”) announced via press release the Company’s financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Lawsuits could harm the company’s financial health. It is important to watch for news.
Worry ifThe updates say the lawsuit ended well for the company.
Less concerning ifUpdates show the lawsuit could lead to big financial penalties.
Why it matters: The CEO change may affect the company's plans and results. This can change how investors feel.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan after the change. This plan matches their growth goals.
Also watch forThere is ongoing uncertainty. Negative comments talk about how the change affects operations.
Why it matters: Lawsuits can affect money and reputation. Updates can show risks for investors.
Worry ifUpdates show lawsuits are resolved well. They have little financial impact.
Less concerning ifUpdates show lawsuits are getting worse or could lead to big financial penalties.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good financial management.
Watch forCapital spending is between $60 million and $65 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending is over $65 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $402 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,995 loss on $10,000 · 50.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval is crucial for the merger to close and for Utz to go private. This could impact the company's future strategy and operations.
Supportive ifMost shareholders vote for the merger agreement.
Worry ifShareholder vote does not get majority support for the merger.
Why it matters: Better earnings could indicate that Utz is moving past its current loss-making phase. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe earnings report shows a better profit margin than last quarter.
Worry ifThe earnings report shows ongoing losses or no change in profit margins.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's health. A miss raises concerns about demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 3%.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows better cash management. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported at $60 million or above for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow remains negative or below $60 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key for total sales.
Supportive ifBranded Salty Snacks sales grow more than 3% each year.
Worry ifBranded Salty Snacks sales grow less than 3% each year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for Utz Brands. This would help improve its current loss-making status.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: The deal with Intersnack Group will change Utz's public status and future strategy.
Watch forThe deal will close in Q4 2026. All regulatory conditions are met.
Also watch forThe transaction fails to close by the end of Q4 2026 due to unmet conditions.