Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.28-0.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UTZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
UTZ — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-30
CEO — Howard Friedman: The CEO is departing as part of a planned corporate transaction (going private), which is an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Branded salty snacks grew 3.3% in Q2, slower than Q1’s 5.2%. Q3 sales will show if growth holds.
Supportive ifQ3 branded salty snacks organic net sales grow more than 3.3% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 branded salty snacks organic net sales grow 0% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted free cash flow was negative $26.6 million in the first half. Positive Q3 cash flow would show progress toward the earlier $60 million to $80 million full-year range.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow is above $0, based on the company’s reported measure.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow is below $0. The first-half deficit remains unrecovered.
Why it matters: The $14.25-per-share cash deal is expected to close in Q4 2026. Closing ends UTZ’s NYSE listing; a delay or failed vote puts that plan at risk.
Watch forUtz files a closing notice or other public filing. It confirms the deal closed by December 31, 2026, after all required approvals.
Also watch forUtz reports a failed required vote, an unmet closing condition, or deal termination. Or, closing is delayed past Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Productivity savings lifted adjusted gross margin in both reported quarters. Q3 will test if savings can keep pace with supply costs.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted gross margin rises at least 150 basis points year over year, matching or beating Q2’s gain.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted gross margin rises less than 150 basis points year over year or falls.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$14 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $388 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,839 loss on $10,000 · 38.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.