Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (UVE)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.42-2.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.75 → 5.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UVE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend of $0.16 per share | Earnings per share are expected near $2.00 in 2026. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.16 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.16 USD_PER_SHARE per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UVE is an insurance company with a profitable-growth thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, but management is rated volatile and the evidence snapshot has medium confidence.
The valuation is described as cheap, but UVE trades at a 1.23 premium versus peers, so that label does not mean it is cheaper than those peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and priced-in fragility is low with no fragility gates triggered; valuation model confidence is also low.
Near term, recent results show strong execution: third-quarter revenue rose 9.6%, policies in force grew 7.9%, and the combined ratio, which measures claims and expenses against premiums, improved to 91.0% from 96.4%. Management has delivered on profitable growth, while catastrophe reinsurance progress is mixed and dividend sustainability is not established by the supplied evidence.
The near-term downside case is a guidance cut, which could lead analysts to lower estimates, or rate cuts from the current 3.88% level, which the evidence says would weigh on Financials. The favorable case depends partly on sector peers CB, PGR, and TRV continuing to beat earnings and raise guidance; over the multi-year view, sustained underwriting strength and effective catastrophe coverage remain central.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UVE’s thesis rests on continuing profitable growth and strong underwriting, with recent results supporting that case. Guidance, interest rates, and catastrophe reinsurance are the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected near $2.00 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.88 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.80 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.00 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20261.8 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stable or declining no worse than -1.5% in 1 year | A supporting condition in Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-1.5% YoY. | Improving | revenue decline worse than -1.5% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio near 6.2 | A supporting condition in Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=7 PE. | Intact | PE rises above 10 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 6.14x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20266.1429 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.40 → $5.30 · observed estimates
$1.57B → $2.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.40 | $1,567,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.40 | $1,567,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.40 | $1,567,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.40 | $1,567,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.40 | $1,567,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.70 | $2,296,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.50 | $1,577,301,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.50 | $1,577,301,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.50 | $1,577,301,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.50 | $1,577,301,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.50 | $1,577,301,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.75 | $2,303,711,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.75 | $2,263,289,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.30 | $2,301,982,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.30 | $2,210,749,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.30 | $2,210,749,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.30 | $2,210,749,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.30 | $2,210,749,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.30 | $2,210,749,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.30 | $2,210,749,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.30 | $2,210,749,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.