Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (UVE)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.14-1.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UVE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
UVE — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-08
Regulation FD Disclosure On July 8, 2026, Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.16 per share of the Company’s common stock, payable on August 7, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 31, 2026. The announcement, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Legal outcomes can change financial health and how investors feel.
Worry ifGood results in lawsuits filed by subsidiaries.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling leads to higher costs for the company.
Why it matters: New debt can affect financial health and future cash flows.
Watch forDetails of debt issuance show favorable terms and low interest rates.
Also watch forDebt issuance terms are unfavorable or lead to higher interest costs.
Why it matters: Positive effects from reforms could improve margins and reduce claims costs.
Supportive ifNet loss ratio improves further below 64.8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet loss ratio increases above 66% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows strong earnings growth. It shows the company can keep making money.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS reported at or above $3.85.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS was below $3.85.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,774 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence in Universal Insurance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below its median level for the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Finishing this project is important for managing risk and handling claims well.
Supportive ifThe reinsurance program is confirmed to be complete with no major changes.
Worry ifAny delays or changes in the reinsurance program terms.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a cash dividend of $0.16 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Board suspends or reduces the cash dividend in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows that the company uses its money wisely. It also shows they care about their shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a cash dividend of $0.16 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend payout below $0.16 per share.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to sustaining profitable growth. A drop could signal trouble.
Worry ifDirect premiums written growth in Q3 is less than 4.1% year over year.
Less concerning ifDirect premiums written growth in Q3 exceeds 4.1% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher net loss ratio may mean claims costs are going up. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet loss ratio in Q3 is worse than 64.8%.
Less concerning ifNet loss ratio in Q3 improves below 64.8%.
Why it matters: A downward change would show lower earnings expectations. This can make investors less confident.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2026 is revised down from $3.85.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2026 is maintained or raised from $3.85.
Why it matters: Finishing this renewal would lower risk. It would also help profits in the future.
Supportive ifThe reinsurance program will last until 2027-2028. This is confirmed.
Worry ifLosing the reinsurance program renewal would cause issues. It is important to keep it.