Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Valaris (VAL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$77.32-6.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.02 → 6.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VAL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital expenditures near $450M in FY 2026 | A supporting condition in Valaris's published investment case. The stated target is ~450 million USD. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $475 million in FY 2026 | Capital expenditures: $105.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~450 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026105,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy-services business with a potential transaction catalyst, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management priorities are on track, but recent results remain below the industry cohort and the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: VAL is described as cheap versus peers, yet its measured premium versus peers is also positive. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment calls expectations justified, with low fragility because the main pressure is a turbulent sector rather than a combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.
Near term, performance may remain uneven: revenue rose and net income improved from a loss to a gain between 2026-Q1 and Q2, while revenue efficiency stayed at 98%. Management reports progress on execution, backlog growth, and the planned Q4 2026 combination with Transocean, but erratic earnings surprises and elevated industry risk remain concerns.
The multi-year view depends partly on completing the Transocean combination as expected and continuing to improve operations and contract backlog. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could sustain the energy-sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VAL’s thesis has support from management execution, backlog growth, and the planned combination, but the mixed recent signal and elevated sector risk warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Valaris is working to improve its operating income, which was $20M in Q1 2026. |
| Broken |
| operating income falls below $20 million in any quarter |
Operating income: $81.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202681,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth consistent with ~8% YoY in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Valaris's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.7% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 7.7% in FY 2026 | Revenue growth: -0.35% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-0.352526 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete business combination with Transocean | The company is pursuing a business combination with Transocean to strengthen its position. | Improving | Business combination fails or is materially delayed | Qualitative: Vote & court hearing scheduled (Oct 23) vs Target: Complete by end-2026 Transocean scheduled shareholder vote and court hearing for Valaris acquisition on Oct 23, 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fleet utilization is increasing, and all ten of our active drillships are now on contract, positioning us to generate meaningful earnings and cash flow.”” “With two additional drillships set to commence new contracts before year-end, these rig startups, together with continued strong operational execution across our fleet, are expected to drive further improvement in our financial performance over the remainder of the year.”” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.36 → $6.94 · observed estimates
$2.48B → $2.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.36 | $2,475,259,250 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.36 | $2,475,259,250 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.36 | $2,475,259,250 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.36 | $2,475,259,250 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.24 | $2,472,111,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.36 | $2,475,259,250 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.52 | $2,469,793,643 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.00 | $2,469,208,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.00 | $2,469,263,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.00 | $2,469,263,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.00 | $2,469,263,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.00 | $2,469,263,871 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.00 | $2,469,268,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.00 | $2,469,268,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.00 | $2,469,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.00 | $2,469,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.00 | $2,469,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.00 | $2,469,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.00 | $2,469,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.87 | $2,461,213,608 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.02 | $2,472,858,409 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.89 | $2,445,976,108 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.89 | $2,445,976,108 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.89 | $2,445,976,108 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.89 | $2,445,976,108 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.89 | $2,445,976,108 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.91 | $2,446,441,919 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.92 | $2,444,219,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.94 | $2,431,775,252 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.94 | $2,431,775,252 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.