Valaris (VAL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$77.32-6.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VAL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. 2
Why it matters: Valaris said the deal was on track to close in Q4. A close would advance its plan to join Transocean and seek synergies.
Supportive ifA company filing or release says the deal closed by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifA filing says the deal ended, or it is still not closed after December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: The two-well program can add work before DS-18's amended Gulf contract. The letter of award was not yet in backlog.
Supportive ifA fleet report or company release confirms DS-18 began the two-well program in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe program is canceled or has not begun by December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: The conflicts cut Q2 adjusted EBITDA by about $30 million. Lower insurance costs and resumed rig work could ease that burden.
Supportive ifValaris reports a Middle East impact under $30 million in a second-half quarter. VALARIS 116 resumes its ARO charter in Q3.
Worry ifA second-half quarter still shows a Middle East impact of $30 million or more. VALARIS 116 has not resumed its ARO charter by year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $540 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,611 loss on $10,000 · 36.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.