Valaris (VAL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$86.74-3.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VAL — divestiture
Dated 2026-07-01
Other Events. Certain Transaction Approvals As previously announced, on February 9, 2026, Valaris Limited , an exempted company limited by shares incorporated under the laws of Bermuda (“ Valaris ”), and Transocean Ltd., a Swiss corporation (“ Transocean ”), entered into a Business Combination Agreement (the “ Agreement ”). The Agreement provides that, among other things and upon the terms and subject to the conditions thereof, Transocean will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common…
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and demand.
Supportive ifTotal backlog is more than $5 billion. This shows Valaris has won many contracts.
Worry ifBacklog stays the same or drops, suggesting weaker demand.
Why it matters: This merger could change Valaris and improve its market position. Investors want to know about synergies and future plans.
Watch forThe merger is complete. Any synergies over $100 million will be announced.
Also watch forThe merger is delayed or there are big regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Strong contract awards help revenue growth and keep the backlog stable. This is key for future earnings.
Supportive ifNew contracts and extensions over $600 million were announced in Q2.
Worry ifNew contracts are under $300 million. This shows possible weakness in the market.
Why it matters: Growth trends in the sector can affect Valaris's performance and market position.
Watch forEnergy sector revenue growth picks up to above 6% year over year.
Also watch forEnergy sector revenue growth drops below 3% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $490 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,611 loss on $10,000 · 36.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This shows progress toward the full-year revenue goal of $2,125 - $2,205 million.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $550 million, up from Q1's $465 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $500 million, showing ongoing challenges to meet targets.
Why it matters: Idle drillships coming back can increase revenue and efficiency. This helps financial health.
Supportive ifThey announced specific drillships are going back to work as planned.
Worry ifThere are more delays in getting idle drillships back to work.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is important. It helps restore profits after a big drop in Q1.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $30 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income stayed below $20 million in Q2. This shows ongoing financial struggles.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Valaris meets its revenue guidance. This is crucial for future outlook.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue meeting or exceeding guidance.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue falling short of guidance.
Why it matters: Ongoing conflicts have affected costs and revenues. Watching this will help identify risks.
Worry ifQ3 results show a decrease in negative impacts from Middle East conflicts compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show higher costs or delays from Middle East conflicts. This worsens financial performance.
Why it matters: New contracts can boost Valaris' backlog and revenue. Recent awards indicate strong demand in this region.
Supportive ifValaris announces new contracts or extensions worth over $100 million in the North Sea.
Worry ifNo new contracts are awarded in the North Sea, leading to stagnant backlog.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. It suggests future revenue potential for Valaris.
Supportive ifThe backlog is over $5 billion. This reflects strong contract awards.
Worry ifThe backlog is under $4.9 billion. This suggests weak demand for drilling services.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. This means more money in the future.
Supportive ifContract backlog increases beyond $4.9 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifContract backlog decreases or fails to grow in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The conflicts have hurt financial results. Less impact could mean higher earnings.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA shows big improvement. This means less impact from Middle East conflicts.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA keeps going down because of the ongoing conflicts.
Why it matters: Steady revenue shows good operations. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifRevenue efficiency remains at or above 98% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue efficiency drops below 95% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This merger is expected to create value through synergies and enhanced capabilities. It is a key growth priority for Valaris.
Supportive ifThe business combination closes as planned in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe merger faces significant delays or is called off.