Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vericel (VCEL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.48+10.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.87 → 0.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VCEL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Burn Care revenue grows at least 21% YoY | Burn Care revenue nearly doubles, rising 91% to $12 million. | Intact | Burn Care revenue growth falls below 21% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with execution risk, rather than a proven durable compounder, because it is still loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on revenue, MACI, and Burn Care growth all on track.
The valuation evidence is mixed: VCEL is described as expensive overall, while the model also labels it cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is modestly negative, but confidence in that measure is low; the snapshot does not show a strong fragility signal.
Near term, recent results show strong growth: first-half 2026 revenue rose 26%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance. MACI and Burn Care are both growing, though continued high growth and progress toward profit and cash flow remain important. Guidance cuts and a weakening jobs trend are risks, while the near-term miss-risk flag is quiet despite a history of recent misses.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on sustaining revenue growth and delivering the raised guidance, especially through MACI expansion and Burn Care adoption. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strength at major Healthcare companies could support the sector backdrop. The jobs trend is another swing factor because recession fears can weigh on cyclical businesses.
For the 1-to-3-year view, VCEL has strong operating momentum and an intact growth thesis, but its losses and expensive valuation leave execution central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| MACI revenue grows 22% to $56.4 million, supporting sustained growth. |
| Intact |
| MACI revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin at least 27% | Profit margins remain strong with guidance for 27% operating margin in 2026. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 20% in FY26 | Operating margin: 0.56% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=27%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 20260.560311 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total net revenue grew from $52.6M in 2026-Q1 to $77.5M in 2026-Q2 (+22% YoY), with first half 2026 revenue up 26% to $145.9M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $330-$340M. Management consistently emphasizes sustained high revenue, profit, and cash flow growth, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 28, 2026 |
Total revenue grows at least 20% YoY | Vericel grows total revenue 30% year over year, reaching $68.4 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Total revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total net revenue grew from $52.6M in 2026-Q1 to $77.5M in 2026-Q2 (+22% YoY), with first half 2026 revenue up 26% to $145.9M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $330-$340M. Management consistently emphasizes sustained high revenue, profit, and cash flow growth, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 28, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.88 → $0.87 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.88 | $388,624,275 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.85 | $388,685,380 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.85 | $388,685,380 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.85 | $388,685,380 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.85 | $388,685,380 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.88 | $388,624,275 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.85 | $388,685,380 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.92 | $389,344,120 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.88 | $391,494,337 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.89 | $392,433,120 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.85 | $392,911,080 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.85 | $392,911,080 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.85 | $392,911,080 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.85 | $392,911,080 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.88 | $392,795,375 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.88 | $392,906,075 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.88 | $392,950,975 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.87 | $392,954,725 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.87 | $392,960,350 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.87 | $392,960,350 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.86 | $392,955,700 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.86 | $392,955,700 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.86 | $392,955,700 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.86 | $392,955,700 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.86 | $392,955,700 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.86 | $392,955,700 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.86 | $392,955,700 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.87 | $392,970,213 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.