Vericel (VCEL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.48+10.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VCEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
VCEL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-01-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Vericel Corporation (the “Company”) will participate in the 44 th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, California, which is being held on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, at 11:15 a.m. Pacific Time. In connection with its participation in the conference, on January 13, 2026, the Company issued a press release, which includes estimates of operating and financial results, including its estimated, preliminary and unaudited full-yea…
Why it matters: The company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $330 million to $340 million. Q3 revenue near or below $84 million would put more weight on Q4.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue is below $84 million, or management cuts the $330 million to $340 million full-year range.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $84 million and management keeps or raises the full-year range.
Why it matters: Gross margin was 72% in Q1 and 73% in Q2, below the roughly 75% full-year goal. A wider gap could pressure profit growth.
Worry ifFull-year gross margin is below 75%, or the company lowers its roughly 75% goal.
Less concerning ifFull-year gross margin reaches about 75%. The company keeps its adjusted EBITDA margin goal near 27%.
Why it matters: Burn Care revenue rose 49% in the first half, and the company raised its full-year range. Results below $46 million would miss that range's low end.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 Burn Care revenue is below $46 million, or management cuts its $46 million to $50 million range.
Less concerning ifFull-year Burn Care revenue reaches at least $46 million and management keeps or raises its range.
Why it matters: MACI is Vericel's largest product. Growth of 20% or more has lasted five quarters, so a clear slowdown would weaken its growth story.
Worry ifMACI revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifMACI revenue grows at least 20% year over year, with biopsy and implant counts still rising.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $437 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,103 loss on $10,000 · 31.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More production room could help meet demand for MACI. The FDA approved commercial production at the new plant in Q1, making the scale-up a key test.
Supportive ifVericel reports MACI production for sale at the new plant. Revenue keeps growing by at least 20%.
Worry ifVericel reports delays or production limits at the new plant, or MACI growth falls below 20%.