Vericel (VCEL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.19-0.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VCEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VCEL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-01-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Vericel Corporation (the “Company”) will participate in the 44 th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, California, which is being held on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, at 11:15 a.m. Pacific Time. In connection with its participation in the conference, on January 13, 2026, the Company issued a press release, which includes estimates of operating and financial results, including its estimated, preliminary and unaudited full-yea…
Why it matters: High total revenue growth is important. It helps Vericel's finances and keeps investors confident.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth exceeds 30% in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth falls below 20% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Further funding would validate the product's potential and support growth in revenue.
Supportive ifMore BARDA funding for NexoBrid beyond the first $197 million was announced.
Worry ifNo new funding news from BARDA for NexoBrid.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow trends show good financial health. They support future growth plans.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow in Q2 2026 exceeds $16 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow in Q2 2026 falls below $10 million.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% signals a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact Vericel's performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $437 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,103 loss on $10,000 · 31.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how well Vericel is doing financially. It will also show if the company is growing.
Watch forThe earnings report shows that revenue is growing. It also shows better financial numbers.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue or bigger losses. This could be a warning sign.
Why it matters: Beating this revenue target shows the business is doing well overall.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reaches or exceeds $340 million for full-year 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue falls below $330 million for full-year 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the company is financially healthy. It can grow without needing loans.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is now positive. It is better than in past quarters.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is still negative. It has dropped compared to previous quarters.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it could signal a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifReported revenue growth drops below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: MACI revenue growth shows strong demand. This helps meet overall revenue goals.
Supportive ifMACI revenue growth remains above 20% year over year for the next quarter.
Worry ifMACI revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating guidance shows strong market use. This helps the growth plan.
Supportive ifBurn Care revenue reaches or exceeds $50 million for full-year 2026.
Worry ifBurn Care revenue falls below $46 million for full-year 2026.
Why it matters: FDA approval would grow MACI's market. This would lead to big revenue growth.
Supportive ifFDA approval is granted for MACI to treat ankle cartilage defects.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays the decision past the expected time.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin shows the company can control costs. This helps grow revenue.
Watch forGross margin remains around 75% for the next quarter.
Also watch forGross margin drops below 70% for the next quarter.