Venu Holding Corp (VENU)
AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.00+4.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VENU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 596.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 59.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 536.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VENU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 13, 2026, Venu Holding Corporation issued a press release summarizing its second-quarter 2026 and half-year financial and operating results and announcing a conference call to discuss those results. A copy of that press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the referenced exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Why it matters: The Ticketmaster deal could streamline ticket sales and improve revenue. Success may enhance VENU's market position.
Supportive ifTicket sales go up a lot through Ticketmaster for VENU events after the deal.
Worry ifTicket sales do not show improvement or decline despite the new agreement.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows VENU's success and how well its venues are accepted.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue grows more than 10% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Progress in Northern Colorado may lead to more growth and revenue for VENU.
Watch forManagement shares news of a final deal for the Northern Colorado venue.
Also watch forDiscussions stall or end without a deal.
Why it matters: An earnings miss can shift investor confidence and affect stock performance.
Worry ifInvestor feelings get better after earnings. Positive comments or guidance help.
Less concerning ifInvestor sentiment worsens, leading to a decline in stock price.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$341 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $921 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,703 loss on $10,000 · 87.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The opening will show if VENU can deliver on its venue expansion plans. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifThe Sunset Amphitheater in Broken Arrow opens as planned in fall 2026.
Worry ifThe opening is delayed beyond fall 2026.
Why it matters: Working with AEG Presents is very important. Progress may show better operations.
Supportive ifWe expect news on savings from the restructuring by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo news or more problems reported in Q3.
Why it matters: The ATM Sales Agreement aims to raise $250 million. This could improve Venu's cash position.
Supportive ifLiquidity gets better as cash on hand rises by at least 20% after the deal.
Worry ifLiquidity gets worse or stays the same even after the deal.
Why it matters: Progress on the $250M ATM Sales Agreement will show if cash flow is better.
Supportive ifThe company reports over $100M in sales from the ATM agreement.
Worry ifNo sales from the ATM agreement or big delays in execution are reported.
Why it matters: Progress on this venue shows VENU's growth in new markets and its ability to execute.
Watch forConstruction on the Chattanooga venue starts on time in Q3 2026.
Also watch forConstruction on the Chattanooga venue is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New partnerships can enhance VENU's market position and drive growth in venue attendance and sales.
Supportive ifAt least one new strategic partnership announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue shows how well VENU is doing. It also shows market demand.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $4 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $3.9 million.
Why it matters: Getting financing shows VENU can fund big projects. This helps the company grow.
Supportive ifVENU will share details on long-term financing for the McKinney amphitheater by Q3 2026.
Worry ifVENU fails to secure financing for the McKinney amphitheater by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The opening will show if VENU can deliver on its venue expansion plans. Success could boost revenue and visibility.
Supportive ifRegent Bank Amphitheater is opening on time. Shows are booked and ticket sales are going.
Worry ifOpening is late or shows are canceled. This shows there are problems with operations.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in Luxe FireSuites helps VENU's plan for premium products and making money.
Supportive ifLuxe FireSuite sales exceed $300 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales drop below $250 million. This shows weak demand or problems in the market.
Why it matters: C-PACE financing is important for funding venue projects. It helps protect shareholder value.
Supportive ifOver $150 million in C-PACE financing is confirmed for venue projects.
Worry ifNot getting C-PACE financing could delay venue openings.