Venu Holding Corp (VENU)
AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.34+7.20%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VENU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 322.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 70.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 251.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
VENU — President transition
Dated 2026-10-19
President — William Hodgson: The President is departing immediately without a designated successor, with responsibilities being distributed among other management and new personnel.
Why it matters: This is VENU’s next major venue launch. On-time opening and booked shows would test its build-and-run plan.
Supportive ifThe venue opens in fall 2026, with shows taking place and no reported delay.
Worry ifVENU reports that the opening moves past fall 2026 or that planned shows are delayed.
Why it matters: The NNN model was 76% of second-quarter FireSuite sales. More sales would support VENU’s plan to fund growth this way.
Supportive ifVENU reports NNN sales at or above 76% of all FireSuite sales in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifVENU reports NNN sales below 47% of all FireSuite sales. That was the level reported for 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: VENU said C-PACE could fund both major venue builds with less dilution. Cash fell as construction spending rose.
Supportive ifVENU closes more than $150 million of C-PACE funding and reports that the Ryan loan and debenture are retired.
Worry ifC-PACE funding fails to close, or VENU extends or replaces the bridge loans with new debt or share sales.
Why it matters: McKinney is a large project that needs funding and steady work to reach its planned opening.
Supportive ifVENU reports that McKinney construction continues on schedule for Q1 2027, with no new funding gap.
Worry ifVENU reports a delay beyond Q1 2027 or a new funding gap that slows construction.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$347 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $934 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,142 loss on $10,000 · 91.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue rose, but operating losses widened. The next report can show whether new venues improve the results.
Watch forOn Nov. 13, VENU reports higher revenue than the year-earlier period and a smaller operating loss than $15.3 million.
Also watch forOn Nov. 13, VENU reports lower revenue than the year-earlier period or an operating loss above $15.3 million.
Why it matters: The president left without a named successor. A clear handoff would show who owns day-to-day execution.
Supportive ifVENU names a president or says which executive now has that role’s duties.
Worry ifIn its next two updates, VENU reports no successor. Managers continue to share the president’s duties.