Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vertex, Inc. (VERX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.59+10.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.02 → 1.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VERX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Progress on AI-enabled transformation plan | A supporting condition in Vertex, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is progress score improves above 50%. | Improving | Progress score remains below 40% or declines | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and operational-improvement story, with recurring revenue supporting the multi-year view. Management’s execution on efficiency and revenue priorities is on track, but recent financial performance is weak and the thesis state is watch.
The valuation evidence tags expectations as justified, with a modest negative expectations gap and low fragility. The snapshot does not provide peer valuation comparisons, so whether VERX is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear.
In the near term, revenue and ARR rose from the first quarter to the second, while adjusted EBITDA also improved and the operating loss narrowed. These changes support management’s recurring-revenue and efficiency priorities, though recent financial performance remains weak relative to the industry cohort. A guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk, despite a low estimated miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued recurring-revenue growth and further progress from the Value Creation Plan. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major tech peers could support the sector backdrop. Progress on the AI-enabled transformation remains mixed.
The 1-to-3-year view has support from recurring-revenue growth and improving operating measures, but confidence has eased to medium and high risk remains. The evidence supports a watch-state thesis, not a clear resolution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Continued momentum in e-invoicing contributed to accelerating ARR and cloud revenue growth, while our investments in AI are improving how we operate today and creating new opportunities to extend the value we deliver to customers.” “Our “AI-First” strategy is beginning to improve the speed and efficiency of selected engineering and customer-delivery workflows, and we have strengthened our leadership team to accelerate product innovation, operational execution, and growth.”
Operational efficiency improves to align with strategy | A supporting condition in Vertex, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operational efficiency progress score above 50%. | Improving | Efficiency progress score stays below 40% or worsens | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue reaches at least $823.5 million | A primary condition in Vertex, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $823.5 million. | Intact | Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $823.5 million | Revenue: $203.97M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $823.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026203,970,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.04 → $1.02 · observed estimates
$0.92B → $0.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.04 | $919,893,976 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.04 | $919,815,450 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.04 | $919,815,450 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.04 | $919,815,450 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.04 | $919,815,450 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.04 | $919,893,976 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.04 | $919,815,450 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.04 | $919,893,976 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.04 | $919,893,976 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.04 | $919,893,976 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.04 | $919,815,450 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.04 | $919,815,450 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.04 | $918,861,520 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.04 | $917,986,133 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.02 | $914,039,890 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.02 | $914,039,890 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.02 | $914,059,888 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.02 | $914,033,221 | 7 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.