Vertex, Inc. (VERX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.92+4.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VERX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VERX — director transition
Dated 2026-10-01
Director — Debanjan Saha: The filing discloses the routine election of a new independent director to the board, which is a standard governance action and not an executive departure.
Why it matters: Management said the plan would save $60 million to $70 million in annual cash spend from 2027. Reported savings would test that claim.
Supportive ifIn 2027, Vertex reports annual cash savings of at least $60 million from the plan.
Worry ifVertex reports annual cash savings below $60 million, or says the savings are delayed beyond 2027.
Why it matters: Vertex raised its full-year profit outlook after Q2 EBITDA beat expectations. A weak Q3 result would test that progress.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $55 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is $57 million or more.
Why it matters: Net revenue retention was 105% in both Q1 and Q2, down from 108% a year earlier. A rise would show more growth from current customers.
Supportive ifReported net revenue retention is more than 105%.
Worry ifReported net revenue retention is less than 105%.
Why it matters: Vertex set Q3 revenue guidance at $208 million to $211 million. A result above that range would extend its recent growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is reported above $211 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is reported below $208 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$243 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $565 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,891 loss on $10,000 · 48.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management cut its 2026 cloud growth view from 25% to 18%. Results near or above 18% would support the revised plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 cloud revenue growth is at or above 18%.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 cloud revenue growth is below 18%.