Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
VIAVI Solutions (VIAV)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.38-2.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.95 → 1.95 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VIAV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit rises to about $234M by 2026-Q3 | Profit margins are improving, with gross profit rising $70.6M from late 2025 to early 2026. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $163.5M | Gross profit: $276.9M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$234M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026276,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and execution story, with recent results showing strong revenue growth and improving margins. The long-term thesis is intact, but the business remains loss-making in the value assessment and carries elevated risk.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to VIAV as cheap versus peers, while another indicates a substantial premium to peers. The expectations gap is 0.78, and the snapshot flags valuation as expensive but fragility as low, so the evidence does not show that the broader risk stack is concentrated.
Near-term results show strong momentum: FY26 revenue rose 40%, while Q4 GAAP gross and operating margins improved year over year. Management’s stated priorities on growth and margins are on track, and the August earnings event was positive. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but a recent history of a deep miss and the possibility of guidance cuts remain risks.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued revenue growth and further margin improvement, including progress in datacenter and aerospace markets. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easing rates or stabilization among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, VIAV’s operating momentum supports an intact long-term thesis, but elevated risk and mixed valuation evidence make continued execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income also grew by $9.5M, showing better cost control. |
| Improving |
| Operating income falls below $15.3M |
Operating income: $11M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$25M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 202611,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $432M next quarter | A primary condition in VIAVI Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is ~$432M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $393M next quarter | Revenue: $443.1M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$432M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 13, 2026443,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “First Quarter • Net revenue of $469.3 million, up $170.2 million or 56.9% year-over-year • GAAP operating margin of 17.4%, up 1,490 bps year-over-year • Non-GAAP operating margin of 29.0%, up 1,270 bps year-over-year • GAAP net income of $76.0 million, up $97.4 million or 455.1% year-over-year • Non-GAAP net income of $125.8 million, up $91.1 million or 262.5% year-over-year • GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29, up $0.39 or 390.0% year-over-year • Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.47, up $0.32 or 213.3% year-over-year “Fiscal 2027 is off to a strong start with first quarter performance coming in above the high end of our guidance.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.95 → $1.95 · observed estimates
$2.14B → $2.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.95 | $2,140,922,705 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.11 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.95 | $2,140,345,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.95 | $2,140,352,254 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.95 | $2,140,344,404 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.95 | $2,140,435,587 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.95 | $2,140,429,021 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.95 | $2,140,429,021 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.95 | $2,140,435,055 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.95 | $2,140,435,055 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.95 | $2,140,435,055 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.95 | $2,140,435,055 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.95 | $2,140,435,055 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.