VIAVI Solutions (VIAV)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.86+3.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VIAV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 112.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VIAV — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-21
Other Events. Underwriting Agreement On May 19, 2026, Viavi Solutions Inc. (the “ Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”) and Needham & Company, LLC (“Needham & Company”), as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the public offering, issuance and sale (the “ Offering”) of 11,111,111 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value…
Why it matters: This guidance indicates how well the company can manage costs and improve earnings.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS guidance meets or exceeds $0.31.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS guidance falls below $0.29.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if the company can keep growing revenue after a strong Q3.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $437 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue guidance falls below $427 million.
Why it matters: Strong operating income growth shows good cost control. This helps financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income grew over 50% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income grew less than 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Exceeding 40% growth would show strong progress in revenue initiatives. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 40% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$327 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $774 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,175 loss on $10,000 · 41.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Exceeding $30M in operating income would show strong cost management and revenue growth. This could attract more investors.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $30M in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $20M in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop below median revenue growth would signal a potential slowdown in the sector. This could affect investor confidence in VIAVI's growth strategy.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median level for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median level for the sector.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may show less demand or problems in the market.
Worry ifFY 2027 net revenue growth is at least 40% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifFY 2027 net revenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This revenue range confirms continued growth momentum after a strong fiscal 2026. It shows if the company can maintain its growth strategy.
Supportive ifReported revenue for Q1 fiscal 2027 is at least $460 million.
Worry ifReported revenue for Q1 fiscal 2027 is below $450 million.
Why it matters: This EPS range indicates strong earnings growth. It reflects the company's ability to manage costs and drive profits.
Supportive ifReported non-GAAP EPS for Q1 fiscal 2027 is at least $0.42.
Worry ifReported non-GAAP EPS for Q1 fiscal 2027 is below $0.40.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management and product mix. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin exceeds 62.3% in upcoming quarters.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin falls below 61.7% in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: Successful integration will expand VIAVI's product offerings and revenue. It is key for future growth.
Supportive ifThe Spirent acquisition adds at least $180 million to Network Service Enablement in the first year.
Worry ifThere are worries about delays in integration. Lower revenue from the Spirent purchase is also a concern.