Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vici Properties (VICI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$25.21-0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.97 → 2.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VICI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AFFO growth and guidance | It raised its AFFO guidance to about $2.68 billion for 2026. | Broken | AFFO falls below $2.51 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VICI is an income-focused real estate business with a multi-year thesis built on tenant partnerships, portfolio growth, and rising AFFO, a measure of cash earnings used to assess real estate firms. The thesis is intact, though earnings quality is rated fragile and management execution is neutral.
VICI is rated cheap versus peers, and its valuation score has fallen recently. The expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the evidence, while the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified and fragility is low.
Near term, results have been broadly steady: Q3 revenue rose 5.8% year over year, AFFO per share grew 4.3%, and full-year AFFO guidance increased. Tenant expansion and a higher dividend show continued progress, but the latest AFFO growth rate eased from the prior two quarters, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on VICI sustaining AFFO growth and meeting its raised guidance while continuing to diversify its tenant roster. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weaker sector results or a VICI guidance cut could remove support and weaken the business outlook.
For the next 1 to 3 years, VICI’s thesis is supported by recurring revenue growth, tenant additions, and dividend increases, but fragile earnings quality and the risk of weaker guidance remain important limits. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Vici Properties's published investment case. The stated target is >= 5% YoY revenue growth. |
| Improving |
| revenue growth falls below 3% YoY next year |
Revenue growth: 5.76% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 5% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 28, 20265.756495 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expansion of strategic partnerships | A supporting condition in Vici Properties's published investment case. The stated target is AFFO increase of at least 5% YoY. | Intact | AFFO growth falls below 3% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.94 → $2.96 · observed estimates
$4.31B → $4.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.94 | $4,310,556,624 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.93 | $4,351,381,390 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.93 | $4,351,381,390 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.93 | $4,351,381,390 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.94 | $4,310,556,624 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.94 | $4,310,556,624 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.93 | $4,351,381,390 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.93 | $4,351,381,390 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.94 | $4,312,977,679 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.93 | $4,351,381,390 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.93 | $4,356,475,130 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.93 | $4,371,898,970 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.93 | $4,371,898,970 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.99 | $4,371,898,970 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.95 | $4,316,819,785 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.97 | $4,349,471,968 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.97 | $4,349,471,968 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.97 | $4,349,471,968 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.97 | $4,349,471,968 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.97 | $4,349,471,968 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.97 | $4,349,471,968 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.97 | $4,343,924,135 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,865 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.97 | $4,339,713,864 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.97 | $4,340,920,466 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.97 | $4,340,920,466 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.97 | $4,340,920,466 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.97 | $4,340,920,466 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.97 | $4,340,975,520 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.97 | $4,340,975,520 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.97 | $4,340,975,520 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.97 | $4,340,975,520 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.97 | $4,340,975,520 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.97 | $4,340,975,520 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.97 | $4,340,956,691 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.97 | $4,348,278,323 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.97 | $4,345,064,216 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.97 | $4,337,286,862 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.97 | $4,337,286,862 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.97 | $4,337,286,862 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.96 | $4,338,272,207 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.96 | $4,338,272,207 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.96 | $4,338,272,207 | 5 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.